prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 98 Eastern Michigan 51 41.0, 110 Kent State 10 20.3
99% 68 Mississippi 38 36.1, 104 Arkansas State 21 9.9
99% 44 Georgia Tech 27 36.7, 96 Central Florida 20 6.6
99% 40 Virginia Tech 34 44.0, 94 Pittsburgh 17 18.5
99% 30 Arizona 33 35.6, 81 Oregon State 7 6.8
99% 19 Air Force 34 51.4, 108 Hawaii 7 1.5
99% 14 Kansas State 42 36.9, 67 Oklahoma 35 6.7
99% 12 Brigham Young 45 38.6, 77 Texas Christian 21 10.2
99% 5 Arizona State 41 40.9, 64 Stanford 9 10.2
99% 2 Nebraska 63 44.7, 23 Kansas 7 12.4
98% 89 Fresno State 34 43.9, 111 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 27.1
98% 42 Navy 47 39.7, 99 Wake Forest 18 15.5
98% 16 Louisiana State 28 42.5, 79 Mississippi State 20 13.7
97% 3 Ohio State 38 38.4, 29 Iowa 26 16.7
96% 56 Maryland 22 36.1, 95 Duke 19 20.0
96% 38 Nevada - Reno 40 43.1, 102 North Texas 13 22.7
94% 10 Michigan 44 31.2, 49 Minnesota 10 13.1
93% 31 Southern Mississippi 31 30.8, 75 Tulane 28 12.5
92% 17 North Carolina 42 29.9, 58 Houston 14 13.0
92% 15 Penn State 48 31.3, 52 Indiana 26 14.3
92% 13 Syracuse 45 37.2, 54 Boston College 17 20.6
92% 6 Tennessee 20 31.8, 34 Alabama 13 12.6
89% 86 Toledo 10 31.3, 105 Western Michigan 7 15.0
89% 41 Utah 45 35.3, 72 Tulsa 19 19.5
88% 33 Northwestern 27 29.5, 55 Illinois 24 13.3
87% 59 Rice 48 31.9, 93 Texas - El Paso 21 18.3
84% 20 Washington 33 38.8, 60 Oregon 14 27.1
84% 9 Colorado 28 36.4, 32 Texas 24 24.2
82% 90 Rutgers 28 32.8, 100 Temple 17 22.3
81% 46 Baylor 49 33.7, 65 Iowa State 21 23.4
81% 4 Florida State 31 33.4, 11 Virginia 24 21.9
78% 8 Texas Tech 13 30.4, 36 Texas A&M 10 20.5
76% 71 Missouri 35 32.1, 85 Oklahoma State 28 23.7
66% 50 Army 27 25.6, 70 Miami - Ohio 7 19.5
65% 73 Ball State 24 31.4, 91 Central Michigan 17 26.4
65% 27 Miami - Florida 10 14.5, 43 West Virginia 7 9.9
62% 84 Louisiana Tech 35 37.5, 88 Alabama - Birmingham 31 35.1
60% 28 Michigan State 30 25.3, 26 Wisconsin 13 22.8
57% 53 South Carolina 27 21.0, 69 Vanderbilt 0 16.8
53% 80 Southwestern Louisiana 13 23.3, 76 Memphis State 9 22.0
50% 66 Southern Methodist 52 18.8, 63 New Mexico 31 18.9
50% 18 Southern California 29 26.3, 25 Washington State 24 25.9
49% 92 Ohio 38 14.3, 87 Bowling Green 0 15.1
32% 35 California - Los Angel 38 23.9, 24 California 29 30.1
31% 78 Utah State 35 21.3, 51 Idaho 28 28.5
30% 106 Akron 34 20.1, 103 Northern Illinois 17 26.3
26% 57 Cincinnati 10 12.1, 47 Louisville 7 19.8
16% 74 Colorado State 27 31.7, 22 San Diego State 18 42.7
4% 83 Kentucky 24 8.3, 39 Georgia 17 27.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.25 6 1.01 4 0.67 10 1.06 22 0.99 1 1.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 49 41 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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