prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 88 Fresno State 41 41.5, 109 Boise State 7 19.1
99% 78 Texas Christian 42 49.7, 111 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 11.5
99% 30 East Carolina 34 46.1, 107 Arkansas State 16 2.8
99% 28 Miami - Florida 57 40.3, 100 Temple 26 6.4
99% 15 Virginia 27 45.2, 95 Duke 3 13.9
99% 14 Brigham Young 40 49.0, 96 Texas - El Paso 18 11.0
99% 13 North Carolina 52 43.5, 85 North Carolina State 20 9.9
99% 5 Arizona State 29 46.3, 82 Oregon State 14 14.2
99% 3 Ohio State 45 47.3, 51 Minnesota 0 11.3
99% 2 Florida 47 50.3, 49 Georgia 7 8.0
99% 1 Nebraska 73 53.7, 63 Oklahoma 21 7.9
98% 48 Nevada - Reno 63 47.6, 108 New Mexico State 14 24.9
98% 12 Colorado 41 37.6, 70 Missouri 13 13.7
98% 4 Florida State 49 36.5, 47 Georgia Tech 3 10.8
97% 39 San Diego State 49 43.2, 102 San Jose State 20 23.4
96% 67 Utah State 21 36.5, 103 North Texas 13 12.4
96% 34 Texas A&M 38 35.3, 87 Oklahoma State 19 14.4
95% 90 Central Michigan 52 42.8, 110 Kent State 51 30.6
93% 18 Auburn 28 32.3, 55 Arkansas 7 12.2
91% 41 Virginia Tech 47 34.6, 73 Southwestern Louisiana 16 17.0
89% 77 Mississippi State 59 36.7, 98 Northeast Louisiana 0 23.3
89% 24 Southern Mississippi 21 28.2, 54 Cincinnati 17 11.7
89% 8 Syracuse 30 28.0, 42 West Virginia 7 13.4
89% 7 Tennessee 31 34.3, 45 South Carolina 14 18.0
87% 50 Louisville 13 15.9, 71 Memphis State 10 3.9
85% 6 Notre Dame 54 35.1, 38 Navy 27 19.2
84% 84 Ohio 38 20.1, 101 Western Michigan 0 8.9
84% 69 Ball State 39 26.6, 97 Eastern Michigan 25 14.0
82% 33 Wisconsin 33 25.0, 46 Purdue 25 13.8
82% 20 Iowa 31 29.6, 53 Illinois 21 17.7
82% 11 Penn State 34 30.3, 25 Northwestern 9 18.8
80% 40 Wyoming 59 36.3, 58 Southern Methodist 17 26.0
80% 35 Kansas 34 39.9, 79 Iowa State 31 30.1
79% 9 Michigan 45 28.2, 19 Michigan State 29 17.6
77% 81 Louisiana Tech 40 38.7, 106 Northern Illinois 14 31.9
69% 76 Miami - Ohio 27 25.5, 91 Toledo 7 18.2
69% 61 Clemson 35 14.8, 65 Maryland 3 9.4
69% 36 Texas 28 34.1, 43 Baylor 23 28.3
63% 83 Vanderbilt 31 17.3, 86 Alabama - Birmingham 15 13.4
56% 32 California 56 22.5, 29 Arizona 55 20.8
52% 17 Washington 21 24.1, 23 Southern California 10 22.8
50% 60 Houston 20 29.9, 66 Tulane 17 29.1
44% 52 Rice 51 27.2, 37 Utah 10 30.4
41% 74 New Mexico 34 27.3, 75 Tulsa 23 29.8
35% 104 Akron 21 15.8, 94 Bowling Green 14 21.4
16% 92 Pittsburgh 20 27.1, 56 Boston College 13 38.1
8% 64 Stanford 21 13.0, 26 California - Los Angel 20 33.6
6% 62 Colorado State 42 12.3, 22 Air Force 41 33.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.09 5 1.19 3 1.27 13 1.08 21 0.93 1 1.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 48 42 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net