prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 75 Ball State 50 46.2, 109 Kent State 6 17.4
99% 68 Idaho 34 45.8, 111 New Mexico State 19 8.5
99% 18 Auburn 28 52.0, 107 Northeast Louisiana 24 9.3
99% 15 Colorado 49 43.7, 77 Iowa State 42 15.2
99% 11 Washington 42 40.3, 70 Oregon State 3 7.4
99% 6 Notre Dame 48 41.6, 63 Boston College 21 13.4
99% 4 Florida State 44 57.8, 102 Wake Forest 7 2.4
99% 3 Ohio State 48 42.9, 53 Illinois 0 9.0
99% 2 Florida 28 53.7, 80 Vanderbilt 21 3.4
99% 1 Nebraska 51 59.8, 72 Missouri 7 5.4
98% 12 North Carolina 28 28.1, 54 Louisville 10 3.8
98% 8 Syracuse 31 39.4, 66 Tulane 7 13.9
97% 100 North Texas 30 29.8, 110 Boise State 27 15.6
96% 45 West Virginia 55 27.8, 90 Rutgers 14 8.2
95% 78 Southwestern Louisiana 45 38.7, 106 Northern Illinois 31 17.9
92% 5 Arizona State 35 43.6, 35 California 7 24.4
89% 29 Wisconsin 45 30.2, 59 Minnesota 28 13.9
89% 24 Michigan State 38 37.9, 61 Indiana 15 22.1
85% 16 Brigham Young 49 41.5, 40 Rice 0 29.3
83% 57 Colorado State 42 32.1, 87 Fresno State 20 19.9
81% 60 Arkansas 13 19.6, 73 Mississippi 7 9.1
80% 69 Miami - Ohio 24 21.2, 83 Ohio 8 10.7
76% 86 North Carolina State 44 40.5, 97 Duke 22 33.1
73% 65 Southern Methodist 30 29.9, 89 Texas - El Paso 0 22.0
72% 95 Eastern Michigan 20 27.9, 105 Akron 17 21.1
67% 17 Kansas State 38 28.1, 38 Kansas 12 22.1
66% 49 Utah 31 30.3, 71 New Mexico 24 24.7
66% 41 Nevada - Reno 54 42.7, 79 Utah State 27 38.3
64% 37 Virginia Tech 35 18.4, 39 East Carolina 14 14.6
60% 31 California - Los Angel 38 30.8, 28 Washington State 14 27.9
59% 34 San Diego State 28 43.1, 33 Wyoming 24 40.6
53% 36 Texas A&M 24 21.1, 42 Baylor 7 19.4
50% 93 Toledo 23 33.1, 92 Central Michigan 20 30.4
50% 81 Oklahoma 27 33.4, 85 Oklahoma State 17 33.5
42% 76 Kentucky 24 21.7, 62 Mississippi State 21 25.1
41% 44 Army 23 23.1, 32 Air Force 7 26.9
38% 103 San Jose State 38 22.0, 101 Hawaii 17 25.9
35% 25 Alabama 26 17.3, 23 Louisiana State 0 21.2
29% 99 Arkansas State 55 33.4, 74 Louisiana Tech 38 39.5
29% 55 Houston 56 23.2, 27 Southern Mississippi 49 30.7
28% 88 Texas Christian 31 20.4, 82 Tulsa 24 27.4
27% 30 Northwestern 40 20.0, 20 Iowa 13 27.0
26% 104 Western Michigan 16 10.0, 94 Bowling Green 13 18.1
21% 51 Stanford 24 10.4, 22 Southern California 20 20.2
19% 58 Oregon 49 23.7, 21 Arizona 31 34.7
18% 26 Texas 38 20.9, 14 Texas Tech 32 33.2
16% 96 Central Florida 35 21.1, 84 Alabama - Birmingham 13 32.3
5% 48 Purdue 9 13.3, 7 Michigan 3 33.2
2% 56 Clemson 24 6.0, 10 Virginia 16 32.6
1% 64 Memphis State 21 5.9, 9 Tennessee 17 32.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.91 7 1.11 9 0.45 9 0.80 17 0.84 2 1.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 50 33 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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