prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 76 Oregon State 67 36.1, 107 Northern Illinois 28 8.4
99% 65 Boston College 21 40.3, 105 Temple 20 18.1
99% 11 Washington 53 49.7, 96 San Jose State 10 5.4
99% 9 Brigham Young 45 52.0, 106 Hawaii 14 5.7
99% 5 Notre Dame 60 50.6, 84 Pittsburgh 6 12.5
99% 3 Ohio State 27 47.0, 63 Indiana 17 9.0
99% 2 Florida 52 50.0, 42 South Carolina 25 15.2
99% 1 Nebraska 49 58.2, 79 Iowa State 14 14.2
98% 100 Western Michigan 76 38.8, 111 Kent State 27 16.1
98% 16 Texas Tech 56 41.5, 71 Southwestern Louisiana 21 15.4
98% 14 Tennessee 55 32.2, 60 Arkansas 14 5.8
97% 40 East Carolina 55 27.3, 80 Ohio 45 4.9
96% 30 Nevada - Reno 66 50.0, 92 Arkansas State 14 34.2
95% 36 Air Force 44 36.7, 88 Fresno State 38 16.5
94% 54 Cincinnati 34 30.3, 90 Alabama - Birmingham 14 12.6
94% 46 Clemson 40 38.4, 83 North Carolina State 17 19.6
93% 32 Texas A&M 33 39.6, 78 Oklahoma 16 19.2
93% 6 Florida State 54 39.0, 35 Southern Mississippi 14 18.7
92% 10 Syracuse 42 32.0, 38 Army 17 13.9
88% 70 Ball State 24 29.7, 93 Toledo 14 11.7
88% 34 Louisiana State 39 25.1, 68 Mississippi 7 11.5
83% 25 Northwestern 27 29.3, 47 Purdue 24 17.0
81% 87 Central Florida 27 25.4, 97 Bowling Green 19 14.9
78% 57 Rice 30 30.8, 82 Texas Christian 17 21.1
77% 48 Navy 35 31.2, 64 Tulane 21 21.2
71% 7 Colorado 12 24.5, 15 Kansas State 0 17.9
68% 43 Houston 38 27.4, 53 Louisville 7 21.4
67% 99 Wake Forest 17 34.1, 104 Duke 16 27.4
66% 28 Wyoming 25 35.8, 56 Colorado State 24 30.4
62% 20 Texas 38 36.0, 45 Kansas 17 31.4
57% 61 Minnesota 23 25.8, 59 Illinois 21 23.6
56% 77 Kentucky 25 15.6, 73 Vanderbilt 0 14.0
54% 86 Tulsa 38 24.4, 94 Texas - El Paso 14 22.2
50% 31 Iowa 31 23.1, 21 Wisconsin 0 23.7
46% 49 Stanford 33 21.0, 39 Washington State 17 23.2
43% 41 Oregon 40 32.0, 24 California 23 34.8
42% 44 Arizona 35 27.0, 27 California - Los Angel 17 31.1
39% 18 Virginia 20 18.3, 8 North Carolina 17 23.2
39% 12 Penn State 29 21.0, 13 Michigan 17 23.7
29% 23 Virginia Tech 21 18.8, 17 Miami - Florida 7 25.4
28% 110 Boise State 33 29.0, 108 New Mexico State 32 34.5
23% 74 Maryland 13 9.6, 50 Georgia Tech 10 18.1
22% 67 Missouri 49 17.3, 55 Baylor 42 27.0
16% 51 Georgia 56 15.6, 29 Auburn 49 28.4
13% 58 Mississippi State 17 14.7, 19 Alabama 16 28.3
7% 103 North Texas 24 8.5, 75 Idaho 17 25.3
1% 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 44 24.4, 33 San Diego State 42 49.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.03 6 1.04 7 0.57 6 0.78 21 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 34 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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