prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 13 North Carolina 27 45.7, 98 Duke 10 7.2
99% 9 Syracuse 36 47.4, 95 Temple 15 12.2
99% 7 Tennessee 56 41.6, 67 Kentucky 10 8.5
99% 6 Notre Dame 62 54.6, 94 Rutgers 0 8.4
99% 4 Florida State 48 46.1, 72 Maryland 10 2.9
98% 89 Idaho 64 35.0, 108 Boise State 19 18.0
98% 53 Cincinnati 35 39.3, 102 Northeast Louisiana 13 10.5
97% 16 Kansas State 35 39.5, 73 Iowa State 20 13.6
95% 22 Miami - Florida 43 33.0, 70 Boston College 26 10.6
94% 25 Louisiana State 35 30.9, 68 Tulane 17 9.8
93% 12 Texas Tech 22 39.4, 65 Oklahoma 12 21.0
92% 75 New Mexico 44 33.0, 101 Texas - El Paso 17 14.2
91% 48 Rice 42 39.9, 83 Tulsa 14 23.1
90% 46 San Diego State 31 42.1, 84 Fresno State 21 26.5
89% 5 Arizona State 56 37.3, 27 Arizona 14 21.8
87% 21 Iowa 43 33.5, 63 Minnesota 17 19.5
87% 8 Washington 31 33.3, 42 Washington State 24 18.8
84% 10 Penn State 32 35.7, 23 Michigan State 29 23.3
82% 66 Southern Methodist 27 27.5, 82 Texas Christian 24 16.1
82% 15 Brigham Young 37 39.1, 57 Utah 17 28.0
81% 20 Virginia Tech 31 21.5, 35 West Virginia 14 11.4
79% 96 San Jose State 31 42.2, 105 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 29.8
79% 86 North Carolina State 37 37.5, 100 Wake Forest 22 29.9
78% 30 Wisconsin 35 24.8, 61 Illinois 15 15.3
78% 18 Alabama 24 26.3, 31 Auburn 23 16.5
72% 39 East Carolina 20 18.3, 62 Memphis State 10 11.2
64% 32 Oregon 49 34.4, 59 Oregon State 13 29.2
50% 34 California - Los Angel 48 24.2, 24 Southern California 41 24.4
50% 51 Navy 36 24.1, 58 Georgia Tech 26 23.7
39% 47 South Carolina 34 18.6, 44 Clemson 31 21.9
38% 64 Missouri 42 28.3, 45 Kansas 25 32.6
36% 40 Stanford 42 22.1, 37 California 21 26.4
30% 55 Indiana 33 23.4, 49 Purdue 16 29.7
22% 69 Arkansas 16 17.9, 54 Mississippi State 13 27.6
16% 93 Toledo 24 14.6, 78 Ohio 23 28.6
14% 80 Oklahoma State 37 17.2, 50 Baylor 17 30.4
11% 77 Mississippi 31 10.7, 52 Georgia 27 26.5
5% 14 Michigan 13 10.6, 3 Ohio State 9 33.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.00 4 0.40 7 0.93 10 0.82 15 0.97 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 38 28 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net