prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 30 Wisconsin 59 41.8, 107 Hawaii 10 5.6
99% 7 Tennessee 14 40.9, 79 Vanderbilt 7 5.1
99% 1 Nebraska 17 43.0, 12 Colorado 12 14.1
92% 37 East Carolina 50 40.2, 82 North Carolina State 29 24.2
89% 26 Louisiana State 17 24.7, 63 Arkansas 7 10.7
78% 18 Texas 51 31.0, 32 Texas A&M 15 21.8
76% 89 Pittsburgh 24 36.2, 99 Rutgers 9 28.6
64% 19 Virginia Tech 26 24.5, 22 Virginia 9 20.3
62% 58 Georgia 19 21.4, 60 Georgia Tech 10 17.5
53% 61 Mississippi State 17 24.2, 73 Mississippi 0 22.6
50% 47 San Diego State 28 33.6, 35 Air Force 23 34.2
48% 6 Florida State 24 34.9, 2 Florida 21 36.6
15% 25 Miami - Florida 38 19.7, 11 Syracuse 31 32.8
6% 31 Southern California 27 18.7, 5 Notre Dame 20 37.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.65 2 1.59 2 1.30 2 0.58 5 0.83 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 10 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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