prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 33 Kansas 24 43.1, 108 Alabama - Birmingham 0 13.6
92% 69 Vanderbilt 29 26.0, 110 North Texas 12 2.0
92% 27 Virginia Tech 59 39.7, 106 Rutgers 19 10.7
92% 16 Arizona State 41 46.3, 104 New Mexico State 10 4.8
92% 2 Florida 21 50.7, 51 Southern Mississippi 6 14.8
92% 1 Nebraska 59 66.7, 112 Akron 14 -0.8
91% 3 Ohio State 24 41.5, 37 Wyoming 10 13.3
90% 26 Alabama 42 35.9, 75 Houston 17 11.9
85% 50 Miami - Ohio 27 24.3, 83 Ball State 10 7.3
85% 42 West Virginia 42 21.4, 74 Marshall 31 5.8
84% 59 Cincinnati 34 30.8, 99 Tulsa 24 13.2
83% 47 Georgia 38 30.8, 84 Arkansas State 7 13.9
82% 58 Louisiana Tech 30 33.9, 97 Bowling Green 23 17.6
81% 46 Air Force 14 34.9, 80 Idaho 10 19.8
80% 64 Mississippi State 13 23.0, 90 Memphis State 10 9.3
73% 72 Mississippi 24 25.3, 96 Central Florida 23 14.3
72% 6 Tennessee 52 32.7, 15 Texas Tech 17 21.8
70% 88 Western Michigan 34 28.9, 103 Temple 14 19.7
65% 81 Central Michigan 44 26.3, 98 Northern Illinois 10 18.9
63% 22 Miami - Florida 45 26.7, 44 Baylor 14 19.3
55% 100 Pittsburgh 45 32.7, 87 Southwestern Louisiana 13 31.4
47% 41 Washington State 37 30.0, 30 California - Los Angel 34 31.3
44% 76 Oklahoma State 21 31.2, 78 Iowa State 14 33.7
41% 34 Colorado State 45 33.1, 13 Nevada - Reno 13 38.7
32% 82 Kentucky 38 12.9, 55 Louisville 24 21.6
17% 92 Utah State 21 20.8, 48 Utah 14 37.1
15% 101 Ohio 31 8.5, 56 Kent State 7 24.4
14% 54 North Carolina State 32 22.8, 12 Syracuse 31 41.4
12% 109 Hawaii 17 14.6, 62 Minnesota 3 33.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.45 3 1.02 4 1.36 11 0.75 7 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 29 21 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net