prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 29 Stanford 28 39.8, 106 San Jose State 12 3.8
92% 26 Louisiana State 55 45.5, 111 Texas - El Paso 3 2.8
92% 13 Kansas State 47 35.0, 101 Northern Illinois 7 3.4
92% 9 Penn State 34 45.3, 88 Pittsburgh 17 10.1
92% 8 Texas 48 51.6, 108 Rutgers 14 9.6
92% 6 Notre Dame 17 41.1, 55 Georgia Tech 13 9.2
92% 2 Florida 82 52.9, 76 Central Michigan 6 12.0
91% 43 Arkansas 28 34.1, 102 Northeast Louisiana 16 8.0
91% 16 North Carolina 23 35.8, 66 Indiana 6 9.4
90% 28 Michigan State 42 38.5, 87 Western Michigan 10 14.2
89% 36 Wisconsin 28 27.1, 80 Boise State 24 6.4
87% 41 South Carolina 33 36.4, 93 Central Florida 31 16.4
87% 33 Kansas 17 34.0, 81 Texas Christian 10 12.6
85% 20 Nevada - Reno 31 41.6, 63 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 22.9
83% 86 Oregon State 33 31.2, 110 North Texas 7 14.3
82% 35 Wyoming 56 41.4, 82 Iowa State 10 26.2
82% 7 Colorado 31 32.9, 30 Colorado State 21 15.7
79% 90 Memphis State 28 21.9, 107 Alabama - Birmingham 7 8.6
78% 4 Tennessee 30 40.2, 32 California - Los Angel 24 26.7
77% 45 Baylor 37 33.1, 92 Fresno State 35 20.5
73% 84 New Mexico 61 27.9, 103 New Mexico State 24 17.0
73% 5 Florida State 14 31.5, 22 Southern California 7 19.9
71% 67 Missouri 44 33.0, 94 Eastern Michigan 24 23.1
70% 49 North Carolina State 45 36.7, 98 Duke 14 27.5
68% 74 Mississippi 23 22.9, 91 Southern Methodist 15 14.4
65% 65 Mississippi State 35 27.9, 77 Kentucky 27 20.7
62% 38 Oregon 16 33.7, 50 Arizona 9 27.5
59% 46 San Diego State 45 38.1, 52 Navy 31 33.5
58% 48 Air Force 41 30.6, 73 Rice 12 25.0
56% 53 California 35 35.8, 79 Houston 3 31.9
55% 75 Oklahoma State 31 29.8, 99 Southwestern Louisiana 7 27.0
55% 44 Southern Mississippi 24 26.0, 58 Illinois 7 23.6
55% 42 West Virginia 24 19.4, 37 East Carolina 17 18.4
53% 14 Washington 42 29.7, 25 Brigham Young 20 28.1
47% 54 Utah 27 20.2, 59 Louisville 21 20.6
46% 18 Auburn 28 28.8, 24 Virginia 17 29.3
44% 72 Marshall 35 17.1, 71 Army 25 20.3
44% 60 Toledo 36 20.3, 40 Purdue 22 24.6
26% 96 Tulane 31 13.6, 56 Cincinnati 17 25.0
25% 104 Temple 28 20.5, 64 Boston College 21 32.2
24% 100 Ohio 21 12.4, 68 Maryland 14 25.2
19% 95 Bowling Green 28 11.1, 51 Miami - Ohio 21 25.2
10% 70 Oklahoma 36 16.7, 12 Syracuse 34 38.1
9% 105 Wake Forest 27 11.8, 34 Northwestern 20 36.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.15 4 1.51 9 0.89 10 0.94 10 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 44 34 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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