prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 64 Marshall 42 49.9, 112 Kent State 17 16.6
93% 40 Air Force 25 44.3, 104 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 15.1
93% 21 Texas Tech 59 45.3, 95 Southwestern Louisiana 14 12.4
92% 87 Western Michigan 21 37.8, 110 Northern Illinois 13 15.7
92% 54 Miami - Ohio 49 36.8, 107 Akron 20 3.8
92% 45 Wisconsin 56 36.2, 101 San Jose State 10 10.5
92% 44 Arizona 24 38.0, 98 Alabama - Birmingham 10 9.4
92% 27 Wyoming 35 42.9, 105 Hawaii 6 8.9
92% 26 Michigan State 51 33.7, 83 Memphis State 21 5.4
92% 15 Iowa 54 41.8, 90 Tulsa 16 9.6
92% 13 Kansas State 23 38.6, 93 Ohio 20 1.5
92% 11 Penn State 52 48.4, 97 Temple 10 6.0
92% 5 Florida State 50 45.3, 75 Maryland 7 3.3
92% 3 Ohio State 44 46.1, 82 Bowling Green 13 1.3
92% 1 Nebraska 38 57.6, 84 Central Florida 24 3.6
91% 35 East Carolina 25 36.8, 94 Wake Forest 24 10.6
91% 14 Auburn 19 39.3, 70 Mississippi 9 11.3
90% 55 Navy 36 42.4, 102 Rutgers 7 21.6
90% 48 Northwestern 24 37.6, 96 Duke 20 14.2
87% 65 New Mexico 38 36.9, 108 Texas - El Paso 20 19.6
87% 24 Alabama 20 21.2, 67 Vanderbilt 0 5.3
85% 53 Toledo 38 34.1, 92 Eastern Michigan 35 15.4
84% 100 Central Michigan 44 41.4, 109 Boise State 26 30.8
83% 30 Colorado State 35 36.0, 78 Utah State 24 20.3
82% 22 Louisiana State 24 32.3, 63 Mississippi State 9 16.6
82% 9 Washington 36 40.7, 39 San Diego State 3 25.1
75% 18 North Carolina 28 21.1, 34 Stanford 17 9.8
73% 89 Louisiana Tech 17 40.2, 99 Northeast Louisiana 16 33.5
73% 62 Indiana 33 24.6, 81 Ball State 6 13.7
73% 36 Kansas 15 35.4, 60 Missouri 7 24.4
70% 68 Minnesota 53 36.2, 91 Iowa State 29 27.5
69% 66 Oklahoma State 35 30.4, 85 Fresno State 0 21.5
62% 31 Clemson 19 31.6, 56 North Carolina State 17 24.4
61% 52 Utah 32 24.3, 73 Texas Christian 18 17.6
56% 16 Virginia Tech 31 29.6, 17 Syracuse 3 26.6
55% 59 Louisville 26 19.6, 57 Illinois 14 17.9
55% 49 Georgia 31 24.9, 43 South Carolina 15 23.3
52% 10 Michigan 27 18.8, 7 Colorado 3 18.7
45% 76 Pittsburgh 35 29.7, 86 Houston 24 30.8
44% 77 Rice 30 25.5, 80 Tulane 24 28.0
44% 19 Arizona State 23 24.6, 20 Miami - Florida 12 27.3
34% 41 Oregon 24 32.0, 28 Nevada - Reno 20 39.4
29% 69 Boston College 31 17.3, 37 West Virginia 24 27.3
26% 38 Washington State 28 18.4, 23 Southern California 21 29.8
21% 33 California - Los Angel 66 27.2, 8 Texas 3 41.0
18% 88 Southern Methodist 31 10.8, 50 Arkansas 9 26.6
14% 47 Purdue 28 18.0, 6 Notre Dame 17 36.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.04 4 1.16 8 0.85 10 0.94 18 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 38 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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