prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 31 Washington State 58 51.1, 109 Boise State 0 10.4
92% 18 Louisiana State 56 47.2, 102 Akron 0 4.9
92% 13 Virginia Tech 50 50.1, 104 Arkansas State 0 7.9
92% 9 Iowa 38 42.8, 71 Illinois 10 11.3
92% 7 Texas A&M 36 47.0, 94 North Texas 10 4.9
92% 1 Florida 55 50.1, 55 Kentucky 28 13.7
91% 20 Kansas State 58 34.2, 82 Bowling Green 0 6.5
91% 6 Ohio State 31 38.3, 53 Missouri 10 15.3
89% 64 Oklahoma State 38 29.9, 98 Northeast Louisiana 7 8.7
89% 23 Brigham Young 19 36.6, 88 Southern Methodist 16 16.1
87% 17 Arizona State 13 34.8, 75 Oregon State 10 16.0
86% 11 California - Los Angel 40 34.6, 47 Arizona 27 13.8
81% 35 Wisconsin 27 27.4, 70 Indiana 26 11.9
81% 15 Auburn 41 38.6, 50 Central Florida 14 22.1
78% 8 Michigan 21 24.9, 19 Notre Dame 14 9.8
75% 12 Colorado 20 29.9, 32 Wyoming 19 16.8
69% 108 Texas - El Paso 24 35.1, 112 New Mexico State 16 24.6
69% 26 Texas 38 37.9, 72 Rice 31 28.5
68% 49 Arkansas 17 33.7, 78 Louisiana Tech 13 24.5
68% 41 Purdue 21 28.9, 58 Northwestern 9 20.0
67% 14 North Carolina 48 23.8, 24 Virginia 20 15.2
64% 48 Miami - Ohio 38 26.5, 76 Army 14 18.6
63% 34 Air Force 24 28.1, 45 San Diego State 18 21.1
62% 99 Alabama - Birmingham 42 34.7, 106 Southwestern Louisiana 7 27.1
62% 57 Oklahoma 35 32.1, 73 Louisville 14 25.3
59% 97 Eastern Michigan 31 41.2, 107 Central Michigan 24 34.9
59% 36 Stanford 58 26.5, 43 Oregon 49 21.1
58% 81 Ohio 31 20.9, 85 Western Michigan 7 16.0
56% 80 Maryland 24 26.2, 93 Temple 21 22.3
56% 74 Marshall 42 18.4, 87 Ball State 16 14.4
56% 65 Mississippi 15 13.0, 69 Vanderbilt 3 9.2
56% 22 Alabama 27 17.9, 29 Southern Mississippi 13 13.5
54% 28 Southern California 27 26.0, 38 California 17 23.9
50% 54 Cincinnati 24 24.0, 68 Boston College 6 23.5
45% 56 Toledo 31 27.7, 37 Nevada - Reno 13 31.0
41% 86 Wake Forest 19 29.3, 52 North Carolina State 18 35.4
34% 66 Mississippi State 37 20.3, 33 South Carolina 17 28.7
32% 51 Georgia Tech 23 13.1, 25 Clemson 20 21.9
26% 44 West Virginia 28 14.3, 21 Miami - Florida 17 27.0
24% 91 Houston 45 22.1, 67 Minnesota 43 35.1
23% 92 Duke 26 23.0, 46 Navy 17 35.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.30 11 1.24 5 0.53 6 1.17 8 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 41 33 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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