prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 56 Central Florida 59 46.5, 112 Kent State 43 21.1
93% 49 Missouri 45 48.3, 103 Iowa State 21 27.0
92% 41 Colorado State 63 35.9, 100 Hawaii 0 4.3
92% 34 West Virginia 48 41.3, 101 Rutgers 0 9.5
92% 30 Clemson 39 46.9, 107 Texas - El Paso 7 2.0
92% 21 Southern California 35 43.1, 97 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 9.3
92% 11 North Carolina 31 39.2, 87 Texas Christian 10 8.2
92% 9 Michigan 37 33.1, 67 Indiana 0 7.8
92% 4 Penn State 41 41.5, 68 Illinois 6 13.5
92% 3 Tennessee 31 43.1, 62 Mississippi 17 3.4
92% 1 Florida 56 51.1, 52 Arkansas 7 5.2
91% 96 Bowling Green 35 36.3, 108 Northern Illinois 10 19.0
91% 13 California - Los Angel 66 46.6, 88 Houston 10 18.6
90% 16 Louisiana State 7 28.0, 69 Vanderbilt 6 7.0
90% 14 Michigan State 31 43.9, 77 Minnesota 10 19.3
89% 72 Oregon State 26 35.9, 102 San Jose State 12 15.2
88% 46 Cincinnati 20 24.3, 85 Memphis State 17 5.4
88% 26 Brigham Young 42 36.7, 81 Utah State 35 14.4
88% 5 Florida State 47 36.4, 31 Miami - Florida 0 13.4
87% 32 Southern Mississippi 42 32.6, 78 Louisville 24 12.1
87% 2 Nebraska 56 34.9, 12 Kansas State 26 13.7
85% 33 Virginia 21 35.1, 80 Wake Forest 13 15.9
83% 24 Syracuse 56 30.5, 66 East Carolina 0 12.2
81% 10 Washington 26 27.7, 27 Arizona State 14 10.2
73% 20 Washington State 24 39.1, 70 Oregon 13 28.1
71% 64 New Mexico 22 35.4, 83 Southern Methodist 15 25.4
68% 17 Auburn 23 33.2, 43 South Carolina 6 23.8
67% 71 Ohio 47 27.1, 95 Eastern Michigan 7 18.2
66% 37 Georgia 47 25.5, 48 Mississippi State 0 17.9
65% 75 Tulane 41 25.6, 82 Army 0 18.5
63% 28 Texas Tech 35 33.6, 65 Baylor 14 25.9
62% 79 Maryland 16 25.1, 86 Duke 10 18.9
61% 40 Arizona 31 30.1, 51 San Diego State 28 23.7
60% 45 Georgia Tech 42 25.3, 73 Boston College 14 19.0
58% 84 Idaho 30 25.7, 89 North Texas 17 20.2
58% 74 Rice 42 35.3, 98 Tulsa 24 30.2
56% 106 Akron 53 37.0, 105 Central Michigan 14 31.8
56% 90 Western Michigan 21 18.9, 93 Ball State 13 14.5
56% 8 Texas A&M 16 23.2, 15 Colorado 10 19.0
55% 38 Wisconsin 26 22.5, 54 Northwestern 25 19.6
55% 23 Stanford 33 24.4, 18 Notre Dame 15 22.6
55% 7 Ohio State 23 26.5, 6 Iowa 7 24.3
54% 63 Kansas 20 25.8, 59 Oklahoma 17 24.3
39% 53 Oklahoma State 42 19.2, 25 Texas 16 26.5
36% 76 Louisiana Tech 41 29.8, 36 California 34 37.0
33% 50 Kentucky 40 19.0, 22 Alabama 34 28.8
32% 109 Southwestern Louisiana 41 28.9, 104 Arkansas State 38 38.4
31% 91 Temple 17 21.7, 61 Pittsburgh 13 31.1
23% 44 Miami - Ohio 24 15.2, 19 Virginia Tech 17 29.3
22% 92 Fresno State 27 23.2, 42 Utah 13 36.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.77 12 0.90 4 0.67 9 1.16 15 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 50 43 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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