prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 81 Memphis State 38 35.3, 104 Arkansas State 9 12.1
93% 66 Vanderbilt 17 35.4, 109 Northern Illinois 7 5.8
93% 62 Toledo 41 45.4, 105 Central Michigan 10 21.5
93% 37 Miami - Ohio 62 49.3, 106 Kent State 26 23.4
92% 27 Colorado State 55 39.1, 98 San Jose State 20 11.9
92% 18 Syracuse 50 47.3, 103 Rutgers 3 9.7
92% 13 North Carolina 30 39.3, 79 Wake Forest 12 8.1
92% 9 Texas A&M 56 53.3, 101 Iowa State 17 10.9
92% 3 Florida State 51 48.4, 88 Duke 27 7.0
92% 2 Nebraska 49 51.0, 67 Baylor 21 10.8
91% 20 Virginia Tech 17 37.5, 85 Boston College 7 8.7
91% 8 Michigan 23 33.3, 53 Northwestern 6 5.2
90% 52 Marshall 52 41.0, 100 Akron 17 15.0
90% 15 Michigan State 38 35.5, 76 Indiana 6 13.1
90% 12 Auburn 49 43.8, 74 Louisiana Tech 13 20.3
88% 51 Cincinnati 33 30.0, 92 Alabama - Birmingham 29 8.2
86% 14 Kansas State 41 36.5, 56 Missouri 11 15.7
86% 6 California - Los Angel 39 44.1, 65 Oregon 31 26.6
84% 4 Tennessee 38 35.9, 21 Georgia 13 16.0
83% 10 Washington 30 35.4, 48 California 3 19.4
82% 33 Southern Mississippi 23 30.6, 82 East Carolina 13 14.8
80% 70 Mississippi State 24 32.5, 96 Northeast Louisiana 10 17.6
79% 22 Texas Tech 17 31.1, 59 Kansas 7 13.9
78% 25 Notre Dame 45 28.6, 69 Pittsburgh 21 14.4
77% 34 West Virginia 31 25.5, 78 Maryland 14 12.5
75% 43 Wisconsin 31 27.5, 72 Illinois 7 14.2
62% 5 Penn State 31 28.3, 7 Ohio State 27 22.0
61% 55 Tulane 64 27.2, 80 Louisville 33 20.3
61% 36 Georgia Tech 27 30.4, 49 North Carolina State 17 23.5
60% 44 Purdue 59 29.7, 75 Minnesota 43 23.5
59% 71 Oregon State 24 27.5, 77 Utah State 16 22.1
58% 32 Air Force 10 26.3, 57 Navy 7 20.0
58% 29 Wyoming 34 30.3, 61 Nevada - Reno 30 22.9
56% 38 Texas 27 34.5, 58 Oklahoma 24 29.7
53% 112 Boise State 52 33.3, 111 New Mexico State 10 32.5
53% 28 Arizona State 35 17.1, 24 Southern California 7 15.8
51% 54 South Carolina 38 30.0, 41 Kentucky 24 29.8
47% 94 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 27.1, 83 Texas Christian 19 29.1
45% 87 Western Michigan 34 20.6, 90 Bowling Green 21 23.1
45% 39 Arizona 28 24.2, 23 Stanford 22 27.8
38% 102 Eastern Michigan 38 20.1, 93 Ball State 32 27.1
36% 40 Virginia 21 16.7, 31 Clemson 7 24.0
36% 35 Oklahoma State 33 11.8, 16 Colorado 29 20.0
35% 64 New Mexico 36 29.0, 45 San Diego State 21 36.3
34% 68 Rice 27 27.1, 30 Brigham Young 14 35.4
26% 73 Southern Methodist 20 16.2, 46 Utah 19 28.7
21% 110 Texas - El Paso 33 22.3, 99 Tulsa 18 33.9
17% 108 Hawaii 28 17.1, 86 Fresno State 16 32.3
7% 17 Louisiana State 28 17.4, 1 Florida 21 41.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.31 8 0.59 7 0.92 9 1.04 14 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 49 37 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net