prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 94 Ball State 37 41.0, 110 Central Michigan 34 18.3
93% 86 Western Michigan 50 51.0, 111 Kent State 27 24.6
93% 77 Utah State 38 47.1, 112 New Mexico State 7 12.4
92% 50 Toledo 41 43.8, 107 Northern Illinois 14 6.7
92% 35 Brigham Young 17 40.3, 98 Hawaii 3 5.3
92% 13 Syracuse 60 44.8, 91 Temple 7 9.6
92% 9 California - Los Angel 34 43.4, 70 Oregon State 10 12.3
92% 5 Ohio State 31 41.6, 83 Indiana 0 1.8
91% 76 Louisiana Tech 42 44.1, 109 Arkansas State 14 24.4
91% 7 Penn State 16 45.9, 71 Minnesota 15 17.9
91% 3 Florida State 38 42.3, 42 Georgia Tech 0 13.7
91% 1 Nebraska 29 47.3, 26 Texas Tech 0 15.0
90% 92 Army 37 31.9, 105 Rutgers 35 12.6
89% 31 Virginia 13 35.9, 87 Duke 10 13.0
88% 4 Tennessee 38 33.9, 29 Alabama 21 13.3
87% 53 Ohio 24 31.4, 95 Bowling Green 0 10.4
86% 20 Colorado 42 26.8, 61 Kansas 6 6.7
84% 52 Kentucky 49 38.6, 96 Northeast Louisiana 14 20.3
84% 2 Florida 24 41.6, 11 Auburn 10 27.0
83% 19 Washington State 63 35.3, 58 California 37 17.1
82% 40 Tulane 33 32.5, 79 East Carolina 16 16.0
82% 6 Washington 58 28.8, 34 Arizona 28 13.2
81% 24 Georgia 34 22.2, 65 Vanderbilt 13 8.2
78% 54 San Diego State 20 39.0, 93 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 24.8
73% 17 North Carolina 20 33.5, 46 North Carolina State 7 21.8
72% 59 Nevada - Reno 42 33.2, 84 Idaho 23 21.1
68% 28 Miami - Ohio 45 33.3, 44 Marshall 21 24.3
67% 43 Miami - Florida 45 24.7, 73 Boston College 44 15.8
60% 69 Wake Forest 35 23.4, 81 Maryland 17 16.9
60% 45 South Carolina 39 19.9, 62 Arkansas 13 13.8
60% 10 Michigan 28 21.7, 12 Iowa 24 16.1
57% 99 Eastern Michigan 45 35.2, 102 Akron 0 30.3
56% 67 Oklahoma 24 29.0, 66 Baylor 23 26.0
56% 39 Purdue 45 26.4, 41 Wisconsin 20 23.1
55% 100 San Jose State 10 27.2, 104 Texas - El Paso 7 25.8
55% 18 Colorado State 14 32.9, 30 Wyoming 7 30.2
54% 68 Oregon 31 30.8, 60 Utah 13 29.7
50% 64 Missouri 37 29.0, 49 Texas 29 30.4
46% 14 Kansas State 36 23.2, 8 Texas A&M 17 25.7
44% 22 Arizona State 31 21.8, 21 Stanford 14 25.3
40% 63 Rice 35 28.2, 51 New Mexico 23 33.8
29% 38 Southern California 20 15.4, 23 Notre Dame 17 26.2
23% 47 Northwestern 19 16.1, 16 Michigan State 17 29.9
13% 101 Tulsa 33 17.8, 82 Texas Christian 22 35.0
12% 97 Houston 41 22.1, 55 Cincinnati 38 37.5
12% 48 Mississippi 36 6.6, 15 Louisiana State 21 27.3
9% 89 Fresno State 20 6.9, 27 Air Force 17 34.0
7% 106 Boise State 17 17.5, 90 North Texas 14 38.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.23 2 1.48 5 0.81 13 0.90 15 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 48 37 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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