prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 54 Ohio 21 38.0, 106 Akron 17 7.7
92% 18 Colorado State 44 48.2, 100 Tulsa 8 11.1
92% 15 Iowa 62 41.7, 80 Indiana 0 7.0
92% 4 Washington 45 41.0, 69 Oregon State 17 7.6
92% 1 Nebraska 35 48.1, 68 Kansas 0 5.3
91% 14 Auburn 26 34.1, 66 Arkansas 21 10.0
91% 9 California - Los Angel 35 47.7, 84 California 17 19.8
91% 3 Florida State 47 37.4, 39 Virginia 21 11.2
90% 11 Kansas State 26 37.5, 65 Oklahoma 7 14.7
90% 7 Ohio State 49 30.5, 42 Northwestern 6 6.8
89% 46 Miami - Florida 47 37.9, 94 Temple 15 14.3
88% 45 Brigham Young 31 33.9, 89 Texas Christian 10 11.2
88% 25 Notre Dame 52 37.2, 77 Boston College 20 14.3
87% 51 Toledo 35 31.5, 96 Bowling Green 20 13.0
87% 50 Nevada - Reno 65 36.2, 91 North Texas 10 14.5
86% 22 Purdue 48 34.9, 75 Illinois 3 16.9
85% 76 Pittsburgh 55 35.8, 104 Rutgers 48 21.2
85% 13 Washington State 35 42.2, 48 Arizona 34 23.0
84% 55 Marshall 48 39.5, 93 Eastern Michigan 25 22.8
83% 35 South Carolina 35 24.4, 70 Vanderbilt 3 8.1
81% 61 San Diego State 10 28.5, 97 Hawaii 3 13.1
79% 38 Clemson 20 24.6, 79 Maryland 9 11.3
76% 30 Southern California 24 31.7, 56 Oregon 22 18.8
74% 92 Ball State 21 29.0, 107 Northern Illinois 14 18.5
71% 81 Louisiana Tech 31 36.9, 101 Boise State 27 28.1
71% 21 Colorado 47 33.9, 49 Texas 30 23.1
68% 24 Georgia 23 37.2, 43 Kentucky 13 27.9
67% 99 Northeast Louisiana 28 34.6, 111 Southwestern Louisiana 21 26.3
58% 74 East Carolina 32 16.8, 83 Memphis State 10 11.1
56% 82 Fresno State 46 32.5, 85 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 28.4
56% 59 Utah 15 28.0, 63 New Mexico 10 23.7
56% 41 Wisconsin 22 32.0, 67 Minnesota 21 27.6
55% 29 Alabama 29 16.9, 40 Mississippi 20 14.5
55% 10 Michigan 23 21.0, 19 Michigan State 7 18.3
52% 78 Utah State 63 28.8, 88 Idaho 17 27.6
51% 37 Southern Mississippi 34 28.5, 32 Tulane 13 27.3
50% 64 Wake Forest 38 24.8, 73 Duke 24 24.0
45% 110 Kent State 60 43.8, 105 Central Michigan 37 48.5
45% 71 Mississippi State 35 26.9, 53 Central Florida 28 29.5
45% 33 West Virginia 30 16.6, 23 Virginia Tech 17 19.2
44% 95 Houston 36 37.8, 98 Louisville 22 41.8
33% 112 New Mexico State 34 27.8, 109 Arkansas State 20 33.9
30% 57 Missouri 51 19.1, 34 Oklahoma State 50 29.8
29% 28 Texas Tech 16 16.9, 8 Texas A&M 13 28.1
20% 72 Southern Methodist 22 13.4, 31 Wyoming 17 28.0
20% 60 Cincinnati 34 18.3, 26 Miami - Ohio 31 34.9
11% 102 Iowa State 24 30.9, 62 Baylor 17 43.3
8% 103 San Jose State 25 6.5, 44 Air Force 22 34.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.27 4 0.74 6 1.13 15 0.94 10 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 48 37 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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