prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 49 Marshall 45 49.7, 111 Central Michigan 17 25.7
92% 63 Ohio 35 34.0, 106 Northern Illinois 30 7.4
92% 40 Miami - Florida 42 48.8, 110 Arkansas State 10 8.6
92% 37 Nevada - Reno 45 47.4, 112 New Mexico State 24 13.1
92% 8 Michigan 24 37.9, 62 Minnesota 3 7.6
92% 1 Nebraska 69 51.0, 68 Oklahoma 7 5.5
91% 42 Tulane 56 44.4, 109 Southwestern Louisiana 0 18.7
91% 33 Virginia Tech 37 33.2, 86 Alabama - Birmingham 0 6.1
91% 18 Colorado State 45 42.0, 88 Nevada - Las Vegas 19 17.4
91% 4 Florida State 48 45.4, 50 North Carolina State 35 15.4
91% 3 Washington 27 38.0, 35 Southern California 0 8.9
90% 48 Utah State 24 43.8, 101 Boise State 20 19.5
89% 69 Kansas 34 35.4, 96 Iowa State 24 17.8
87% 51 Air Force 34 19.7, 91 Hawaii 27 3.9
86% 5 Tennessee 22 39.0, 32 South Carolina 7 17.8
85% 21 Notre Dame 21 35.8, 59 Navy 17 16.7
85% 12 Penn State 30 33.4, 53 Northwestern 27 16.4
83% 9 Syracuse 40 33.8, 29 West Virginia 10 16.4
80% 99 Ball State 31 30.1, 107 Akron 14 17.6
77% 45 Virginia 45 25.8, 82 Maryland 0 12.9
77% 31 Wyoming 41 30.1, 60 San Diego State 17 15.3
75% 13 Texas A&M 28 33.6, 34 Oklahoma State 25 18.2
74% 97 Temple 49 37.5, 108 Rutgers 7 25.9
74% 7 Iowa 35 38.1, 23 Purdue 17 26.1
68% 15 North Carolina 16 23.3, 36 Georgia Tech 13 14.3
68% 6 Ohio State 37 24.5, 22 Michigan State 13 15.2
67% 61 New Mexico 40 27.7, 87 Texas Christian 10 18.5
66% 73 East Carolina 45 31.6, 95 Louisville 31 22.3
64% 75 Fresno State 53 34.0, 98 San Jose State 12 27.0
64% 10 California - Los Angel 27 33.9, 28 Stanford 7 25.9
63% 83 Memphis State 24 31.1, 89 Houston 3 23.7
63% 11 Kansas State 13 24.2, 27 Texas Tech 2 16.5
61% 30 Southern Mississippi 24 26.0, 56 Cincinnati 17 18.8
59% 20 Louisiana State 63 32.3, 43 Kentucky 28 25.3
58% 38 Clemson 33 24.2, 67 Wake Forest 16 17.9
56% 84 Western Michigan 41 27.8, 94 Eastern Michigan 38 23.8
55% 80 Boston College 22 32.9, 77 Pittsburgh 21 31.2
55% 19 Arizona State 44 29.2, 17 Washington State 31 26.8
50% 85 Indiana 23 17.0, 81 Illinois 6 17.4
50% 70 Baylor 23 30.0, 57 Texas 21 31.2
45% 102 Kent State 29 35.8, 92 Bowling Green 20 45.9
45% 76 California 33 25.9, 66 Oregon State 14 28.4
45% 71 Southern Methodist 24 27.1, 54 Rice 6 30.0
41% 52 Toledo 35 23.0, 26 Miami - Ohio 28 29.9
21% 93 Tulsa 21 18.0, 65 Utah 13 31.5
18% 100 Northeast Louisiana 45 20.0, 58 Central Florida 41 35.1
16% 55 Missouri 41 20.7, 16 Colorado 31 39.4
11% 79 Louisiana Tech 26 16.7, 25 Alabama 20 39.1
10% 24 Georgia 37 14.4, 2 Florida 17 40.0
9% 72 Mississippi State 20 9.7, 14 Auburn 0 38.3
8% 104 Texas - El Paso 14 7.3, 39 Brigham Young 3 38.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.99 9 1.54 7 1.12 9 0.78 15 0.87 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 51 39 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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