prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 82 Western Michigan 38 48.6, 112 Central Michigan 24 21.4
93% 67 Wake Forest 28 41.6, 110 Rutgers 14 19.4
93% 20 Colorado 43 45.3, 97 Iowa State 38 20.6
92% 16 Washington State 77 54.7, 111 Southwestern Louisiana 7 10.6
92% 10 Kansas State 48 36.7, 76 Kansas 16 2.5
92% 8 Syracuse 20 47.6, 80 Boston College 13 11.8
92% 5 Ohio State 31 38.3, 60 Minnesota 3 10.5
92% 3 Florida 20 45.9, 73 Vanderbilt 7 3.1
92% 1 Nebraska 45 49.4, 48 Missouri 38 16.8
91% 65 San Diego State 48 38.4, 102 San Jose State 21 15.0
91% 63 Southern Methodist 28 31.5, 101 Texas - El Paso 14 6.1
90% 55 Cincinnati 28 42.1, 100 Louisville 9 20.6
90% 50 Marshall 28 37.4, 98 Bowling Green 0 12.3
90% 32 Wyoming 35 38.4, 86 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 12.9
90% 19 Texas A&M 38 36.5, 74 Baylor 10 10.1
89% 52 Air Force 24 28.9, 89 Army 0 7.2
89% 39 Nevada - Reno 56 40.5, 99 Boise State 42 21.3
89% 30 Tulane 26 32.7, 81 Memphis State 14 7.8
89% 14 Arizona State 28 37.3, 72 California 21 17.4
87% 53 Navy 49 36.7, 91 Temple 17 16.7
87% 7 Tennessee 44 35.4, 27 Southern Mississippi 20 13.3
86% 54 Rice 38 35.9, 94 Texas Christian 19 15.9
86% 42 North Carolina State 45 33.6, 84 Maryland 28 12.3
86% 38 Clemson 29 31.6, 78 Duke 20 11.8
84% 18 Colorado State 41 40.6, 59 Fresno State 3 22.5
83% 58 Brigham Young 49 32.9, 90 Tulsa 39 14.4
78% 29 Oklahoma State 30 34.6, 77 Oklahoma 7 20.9
76% 41 Mississippi 19 25.3, 68 Arkansas 9 11.7
75% 49 Northwestern 34 24.9, 83 Illinois 21 12.1
75% 2 Florida State 20 34.1, 17 North Carolina 3 21.4
74% 25 Virginia Tech 27 26.5, 46 Miami - Florida 25 13.5
72% 47 Arizona 27 29.9, 71 Oregon State 7 18.9
70% 28 Miami - Ohio 45 30.6, 66 Ohio 21 19.9
63% 15 Louisiana State 27 29.0, 36 Alabama 0 20.9
61% 70 East Carolina 28 33.7, 88 Houston 27 27.9
57% 37 Virginia 35 18.1, 40 Georgia Tech 31 13.3
57% 31 Texas Tech 24 26.9, 57 Texas 10 20.7
57% 22 Purdue 22 30.1, 24 Michigan State 21 25.5
56% 96 Eastern Michigan 38 33.8, 105 Northern Illinois 10 30.8
56% 75 Louisiana Tech 32 29.8, 87 Alabama - Birmingham 29 25.0
56% 34 Southern California 45 19.9, 33 Stanford 21 17.0
55% 106 Akron 45 44.6, 104 Kent State 35 34.7
52% 107 North Texas 26 30.1, 109 New Mexico State 15 27.5
51% 9 Michigan 34 19.3, 12 Penn State 8 17.9
12% 43 Wisconsin 13 18.7, 6 Iowa 10 39.1
10% 95 Ball State 35 10.1, 44 Toledo 3 31.4
9% 45 Oregon 31 16.9, 4 Washington 28 44.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.81 2 1.61 7 1.35 13 1.06 16 0.96 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 44 1.18
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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