prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 76 Louisiana Tech 63 46.5, 112 Southwestern Louisiana 24 21.8
93% 56 Toledo 42 40.1, 104 Akron 10 12.4
93% 51 Miami - Florida 51 44.0, 106 Rutgers 23 13.8
92% 27 Miami - Ohio 42 48.6, 107 Northern Illinois 0 11.1
92% 13 Syracuse 32 41.9, 80 Pittsburgh 27 14.9
92% 4 Tennessee 30 40.2, 68 Arkansas 22 10.9
92% 3 Ohio State 41 42.9, 84 Illinois 6 0.3
92% 2 Florida State 58 48.9, 71 Wake Forest 7 9.3
92% 1 Nebraska 77 59.0, 95 Iowa State 14 13.0
91% 35 West Virginia 41 40.8, 99 Temple 21 11.6
91% 15 Texas A&M 51 37.4, 81 Oklahoma 7 11.7
90% 32 Southern Mississippi 33 41.1, 88 Houston 0 20.0
89% 7 Michigan 26 25.6, 41 Wisconsin 16 7.2
84% 26 Southern California 23 26.5, 75 Oregon State 0 10.2
83% 96 Army 25 29.4, 108 North Texas 14 13.9
82% 11 Washington State 38 44.7, 45 Stanford 28 28.0
78% 5 Florida 48 32.2, 29 South Carolina 21 17.8
77% 55 Minnesota 24 30.0, 83 Indiana 12 15.2
77% 40 Missouri 42 36.0, 74 Baylor 24 23.0
76% 65 Central Florida 27 42.3, 93 Eastern Michigan 10 31.3
75% 47 Marshall 27 29.8, 72 Ohio 0 16.8
74% 38 Georgia Tech 41 28.9, 78 Duke 38 17.2
73% 37 Arizona 41 35.6, 67 California 38 24.1
73% 16 Arizona State 52 31.8, 30 Oregon 31 19.7
73% 12 Kansas State 37 31.5, 21 Colorado 20 18.8
69% 63 Southern Methodist 42 31.1, 91 Tulsa 41 21.7
65% 79 Memphis State 21 27.2, 92 Louisville 20 17.5
63% 60 Texas 45 27.5, 77 Kansas 31 19.4
56% 105 Idaho 35 33.2, 111 New Mexico State 18 29.1
56% 23 North Carolina 17 17.4, 39 Clemson 10 12.1
55% 85 Western Michigan 32 27.1, 97 Northeast Louisiana 19 23.7
54% 58 New Mexico 38 24.5, 53 Brigham Young 28 23.0
54% 10 California - Los Angel 52 27.8, 8 Washington 28 26.8
52% 43 North Carolina State 31 28.5, 34 Virginia 24 28.0
50% 69 Utah 31 23.2, 59 Rice 14 22.5
50% 98 Texas - El Paso 24 18.6, 94 Texas Christian 17 19.4
46% 73 East Carolina 14 21.7, 54 Cincinnati 7 23.9
46% 17 Penn State 42 29.1, 20 Purdue 17 30.1
45% 46 Mississippi State 32 15.5, 49 Alabama 20 18.1
45% 44 Mississippi 41 19.2, 50 Tulane 24 20.5
44% 66 San Diego State 20 27.9, 61 Fresno State 19 31.5
44% 62 Kentucky 21 23.9, 64 Vanderbilt 10 27.1
44% 52 Air Force 14 14.8, 33 Wyoming 3 19.3
41% 31 Texas Tech 27 13.6, 28 Oklahoma State 3 19.2
38% 24 Auburn 45 16.1, 18 Georgia 34 23.5
32% 103 San Jose State 38 18.4, 90 Hawaii 14 26.5
32% 57 Utah State 38 33.0, 36 Nevada - Reno 19 41.6
22% 22 Notre Dame 24 18.1, 9 Louisiana State 6 33.0
13% 48 Northwestern 15 17.6, 6 Iowa 14 36.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.80 6 0.76 10 1.19 6 0.97 11 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 49 35 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net