prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 44 Navy 62 51.5, 104 Kent State 29 28.2
93% 8 Kansas State 28 50.8, 103 Iowa State 3 16.9
91% 20 Michigan State 27 33.2, 81 Illinois 17 8.6
91% 10 Iowa 31 39.8, 64 Minnesota 0 11.5
90% 21 North Carolina 50 34.6, 76 Duke 14 9.7
89% 89 Alabama - Birmingham 13 32.9, 109 Arkansas State 7 18.2
89% 41 Georgia Tech 37 34.1, 86 Maryland 18 10.6
89% 23 Purdue 56 35.6, 82 Indiana 7 14.6
87% 62 Rice 31 34.2, 97 Texas - El Paso 13 12.7
87% 12 Colorado State 38 35.8, 61 San Diego State 17 16.6
86% 31 Southern Mississippi 42 24.3, 80 Memphis State 18 7.9
86% 7 Tennessee 59 42.7, 58 Kentucky 31 24.9
85% 51 New Mexico 51 40.7, 91 Tulsa 13 24.4
85% 19 Auburn 18 29.1, 50 Alabama 17 10.7
81% 16 Penn State 35 33.5, 37 Wisconsin 10 17.0
79% 74 Boston College 24 30.7, 92 Army 20 15.0
79% 43 Oregon 48 33.7, 75 Oregon State 30 18.7
77% 18 Notre Dame 21 29.6, 35 West Virginia 14 15.7
75% 49 Tulane 44 37.1, 90 Houston 10 25.2
75% 42 North Carolina State 37 34.1, 71 East Carolina 24 21.7
74% 34 Stanford 21 36.1, 67 California 20 24.3
74% 29 Oklahoma State 24 28.1, 73 Baylor 14 15.8
73% 5 California - Los Angel 31 29.7, 22 Southern California 24 17.5
56% 66 Central Florida 34 30.4, 65 Toledo 17 27.4
54% 6 Michigan 20 14.4, 4 Ohio State 14 13.4
50% 24 Georgia 21 24.3, 30 Mississippi 14 24.0
50% 3 Florida 32 35.4, 2 Florida State 29 36.3
46% 57 Arkansas 17 17.0, 46 Mississippi State 7 19.3
45% 99 Boise State 30 29.8, 102 Idaho 23 31.9
44% 11 Washington State 41 35.6, 9 Washington 35 39.9
42% 60 Utah 20 16.1, 55 Brigham Young 14 20.9
42% 38 Clemson 47 18.0, 32 South Carolina 21 22.6
41% 100 Northeast Louisiana 23 18.5, 96 Hawaii 20 23.6
36% 70 Fresno State 24 20.3, 39 Wyoming 7 28.3
30% 101 San Jose State 55 27.3, 85 Nevada - Las Vegas 48 37.2
25% 93 Texas Christian 21 15.5, 69 Southern Methodist 18 27.3
24% 72 Pittsburgh 30 17.7, 28 Virginia Tech 23 30.3
9% 83 Oklahoma 32 3.8, 26 Texas Tech 21 30.2
8% 106 North Texas 51 13.2, 56 Utah State 48 38.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.36 1 0.00 11 0.97 10 1.16 7 0.78 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 39 25 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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