prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 18 Notre Dame 23 39.7, 97 Hawaii 22 4.8
92% 4 Tennessee 17 41.0, 69 Vanderbilt 10 2.3
91% 1 Nebraska 27 47.3, 25 Colorado 24 21.5
89% 15 Louisiana State 31 31.4, 54 Arkansas 21 8.9
87% 13 Texas A&M 27 40.9, 58 Texas 16 18.8
67% 17 Syracuse 33 32.4, 40 Miami - Florida 13 22.7
62% 20 Georgia 27 28.3, 43 Georgia Tech 24 21.3
55% 34 Virginia 34 20.2, 27 Virginia Tech 20 18.9
53% 32 Mississippi 15 20.3, 49 Mississippi State 14 17.9
42% 24 Michigan State 49 21.7, 11 Penn State 14 28.1
24% 68 Pittsburgh 41 21.2, 35 West Virginia 38 34.4
18% 42 Arizona 28 18.8, 14 Arizona State 16 35.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.21 2 1.55 1 0.00 3 0.78 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 12 9 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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