prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 1 Nebraska 56 46.0, 66 Louisiana Tech 27 19.1
69% 2 Florida State 23 33.5, 17 Texas A&M 14 21.2
57% 24 Southern California 27 25.9, 25 Purdue 17 21.6
44% 15 Colorado State 23 24.3, 16 Michigan State 16 27.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 1 1.45 1 1.35 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 4 3 1.18
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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