prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 Nebraska 38 54.1, 89 Alabama - Birmingham 7 9.5
77% 83 Western Michigan 37 31.9, 107 Northern Illinois 23 16.8
77% 76 Oklahoma 37 33.1, 102 North Texas 9 21.0
77% 68 Toledo 24 32.4, 98 Temple 12 20.2
77% 66 Minnesota 17 37.6, 110 Arkansas State 14 13.5
77% 60 Texas 66 39.8, 111 New Mexico State 36 17.0
77% 56 Arkansas 38 45.7, 112 Southwestern Louisiana 17 12.7
77% 52 California 14 35.5, 90 Houston 10 23.5
77% 46 Northwestern 41 34.5, 85 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 20.5
77% 43 South Carolina 38 32.5, 86 Ball State 20 15.3
77% 35 Texas Tech 35 31.5, 101 Texas - El Paso 3 9.6
77% 31 Missouri 37 36.3, 97 Bowling Green 0 16.9
77% 30 Mississippi 30 28.0, 80 Memphis State 10 12.6
77% 19 Georgia 56 45.0, 106 Kent State 3 19.9
77% 12 Iowa 38 46.7, 109 Central Michigan 0 12.9
77% 10 Washington State 20 39.2, 81 Illinois 13 15.4
76% 44 Marshall 27 35.7, 105 Akron 16 19.4
76% 42 Virginia Tech 38 27.1, 69 East Carolina 3 17.2
76% 37 North Carolina State 34 30.4, 74 Ohio 31 18.8
76% 33 Arizona 27 30.9, 94 Hawaii 6 16.1
75% 48 Mississippi State 42 19.5, 62 Vanderbilt 0 12.3
75% 40 Alabama 38 26.5, 61 Brigham Young 31 18.5
75% 5 Ohio State 34 30.4, 49 West Virginia 17 18.0
73% 53 Air Force 42 24.0, 71 Wake Forest 0 17.3
72% 17 Penn State 34 28.1, 24 Southern Mississippi 6 21.3
68% 39 Oklahoma State 38 24.6, 78 Kansas 28 17.9
67% 67 Rice 23 28.0, 73 Southern Methodist 17 23.5
64% 57 Kentucky 68 34.7, 93 Louisville 34 30.4
62% 55 Central Florida 64 38.9, 95 Louisiana Tech 30 33.3
62% 26 Oregon 48 31.0, 25 Michigan State 14 27.9
60% 6 Washington 42 26.7, 16 Arizona State 38 23.9
56% 88 Texas Christian 31 31.7, 104 Iowa State 21 29.2
56% 8 Tennessee 34 28.1, 14 Syracuse 33 26.3
53% 47 Wisconsin 26 25.6, 64 San Diego State 14 24.4
49% 72 Oregon State 48 26.1, 54 Nevada - Reno 6 26.9
46% 45 Tulane 52 24.8, 58 Cincinnati 34 24.7
38% 59 Utah 20 24.4, 63 Utah State 12 26.7
34% 22 Colorado 42 22.4, 11 Colorado State 14 28.1
33% 23 Notre Dame 36 16.1, 7 Michigan 20 22.2
25% 29 Virginia 19 19.9, 18 Auburn 0 28.2
24% 77 Boston College 41 19.2, 34 Georgia Tech 31 31.7
24% 32 Miami - Ohio 13 19.5, 13 North Carolina 10 30.2
23% 100 San Jose State 35 19.4, 38 Stanford 23 37.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.22 8 0.96 28 1.13 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 43 34 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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