prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 59 Georgia Tech 42 54.3, 112 New Mexico State 7 19.2
93% 52 Utah 45 50.8, 111 Louisville 22 14.5
93% 26 Texas A&M 28 48.0, 101 Louisiana Tech 7 19.4
92% 32 Texas Tech 30 35.1, 104 North Texas 0 8.6
92% 15 Oregon 33 41.3, 99 Texas - El Paso 26 12.8
92% 13 Penn State 48 41.9, 102 Bowling Green 3 2.7
90% 30 Air Force 52 34.7, 97 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 12.5
88% 22 Virginia 31 31.9, 79 Maryland 19 7.4
87% 24 Mississippi State 14 28.2, 78 Memphis State 6 10.6
87% 11 Colorado 29 39.5, 65 Fresno State 21 19.1
86% 55 Boston College 41 41.8, 106 Rutgers 14 21.6
86% 44 Alabama 32 26.9, 87 Vanderbilt 7 7.4
85% 25 Missouri 41 36.3, 77 Kansas 23 16.4
84% 28 Southern California 35 30.0, 70 San Diego State 6 11.9
82% 4 Ohio State 49 35.3, 62 Toledo 0 9.6
81% 14 Kansas State 73 47.1, 107 Northern Illinois 7 8.3
81% 1 Nebraska 24 38.1, 56 California 3 15.9
79% 8 California - Los Angel 49 42.1, 18 Texas 31 33.4
78% 36 Oregon State 27 29.8, 71 Baylor 17 15.3
77% 43 Wisconsin 45 28.0, 67 Ohio 0 15.8
77% 20 Louisiana State 42 41.9, 105 Arkansas State 6 7.9
77% 17 Washington State 33 36.9, 91 Boise State 21 18.0
77% 3 Florida 42 44.6, 90 Northeast Louisiana 10 10.3
76% 42 Purdue 21 31.4, 64 Rice 19 21.8
76% 40 Colorado State 26 33.2, 86 Nevada - Reno 14 21.8
76% 35 Miami - Ohio 14 30.3, 88 Army 13 14.5
76% 21 Tulane 31 34.7, 69 Southern Methodist 21 23.9
76% 5 Georgia 17 31.5, 41 South Carolina 3 21.3
75% 54 New Mexico 39 30.8, 68 Utah State 36 23.0
72% 51 Miami - Florida 38 32.5, 85 Cincinnati 12 25.7
69% 33 Arizona 31 28.3, 63 Stanford 14 20.9
65% 58 Oklahoma 10 26.3, 80 Texas Christian 9 21.1
60% 72 Minnesota 14 22.2, 83 Houston 7 19.4
53% 82 Indiana 45 24.0, 75 Western Michigan 30 24.1
43% 84 Eastern Michigan 13 25.6, 92 Ball State 7 26.1
41% 31 Virginia Tech 37 19.9, 39 Clemson 0 20.0
30% 49 Auburn 17 14.3, 37 Mississippi 0 22.0
29% 23 Syracuse 38 20.5, 16 Michigan 28 25.6
28% 61 Brigham Young 26 25.2, 27 Arizona State 6 33.5
28% 57 Michigan State 45 20.3, 19 Notre Dame 23 30.1
24% 103 Akron 35 20.8, 94 Temple 28 29.2
24% 96 Idaho 17 25.5, 76 San Jose State 12 34.9
24% 48 North Carolina State 24 23.1, 2 Florida State 7 36.7
23% 89 Tulsa 35 24.1, 38 Oklahoma State 20 35.9
20% 93 Wake Forest 26 17.7, 45 Navy 14 32.1
16% 74 Duke 44 16.5, 34 Northwestern 10 33.4
8% 100 Iowa State 27 9.7, 9 Iowa 9 45.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.59 3 1.54 21 0.82 13 1.00 7 0.93 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 34 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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