prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 19 Wisconsin 52 47.0, 106 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 8.9
92% 3 California - Los Angel 42 44.6, 92 Houston 24 8.5
89% 20 Oregon 58 42.4, 87 San Jose State 3 20.5
88% 7 Kentucky 31 50.9, 73 Indiana 27 32.2
87% 60 Navy 38 45.1, 107 Kent State 24 24.0
87% 50 Boston College 31 40.1, 101 Temple 7 19.2
87% 15 Colorado 25 40.9, 71 Utah State 6 19.9
87% 6 Georgia 16 31.2, 46 Wyoming 9 7.2
87% 4 Ohio State 35 37.2, 30 Missouri 14 16.0
86% 9 Penn State 20 36.7, 61 Pittsburgh 13 19.3
86% 1 Kansas State 48 52.7, 31 Texas 7 35.3
84% 36 Arizona State 34 40.9, 104 North Texas 15 8.9
84% 17 Syracuse 70 47.8, 105 Rutgers 14 13.0
83% 99 Louisiana Tech 77 41.8, 109 Southwestern Louisiana 14 33.4
81% 22 Virginia 20 28.1, 69 Clemson 18 7.2
81% 18 Texas Tech 34 26.3, 51 Fresno State 28 11.0
79% 11 Washington 20 39.9, 48 Brigham Young 10 24.5
77% 85 Toledo 35 29.5, 100 Western Michigan 7 17.5
77% 74 Utah 30 19.0, 94 Hawaii 21 6.4
77% 55 Mississippi 30 17.7, 91 Vanderbilt 6 7.2
77% 42 Michigan 59 29.8, 80 Eastern Michigan 20 12.9
77% 23 Washington State 24 35.4, 83 Idaho 16 11.6
77% 21 Southern California 40 24.4, 37 Oregon State 20 13.9
76% 47 West Virginia 42 31.8, 72 Maryland 20 19.9
76% 16 Florida State 62 30.4, 26 Duke 13 23.9
75% 79 Iowa State 38 32.7, 96 Ball State 0 22.5
75% 75 Minnesota 41 19.7, 88 Memphis State 14 11.1
74% 54 Arkansas 44 22.0, 65 Southern Methodist 17 14.3
70% 81 Army 37 29.2, 97 Cincinnati 20 19.9
70% 27 Arizona 35 19.6, 39 Iowa 11 13.6
70% 12 Virginia Tech 27 23.5, 32 Miami - Florida 20 16.9
66% 13 Air Force 30 25.8, 33 Colorado State 27 13.4
65% 14 Louisiana State 31 18.2, 29 Auburn 19 13.1
48% 78 East Carolina 21 22.0, 84 Ohio 14 21.9
46% 43 Marshall 24 23.0, 53 South Carolina 21 22.9
45% 10 Tennessee 20 29.2, 5 Florida 17 30.6
37% 44 Texas A&M 24 11.7, 45 Southern Mississippi 6 14.8
33% 59 Baylor 33 23.1, 41 North Carolina State 30 27.2
33% 38 Purdue 35 33.2, 8 Central Florida 7 40.0
32% 66 California 13 15.8, 58 Oklahoma 12 21.1
29% 52 Oklahoma State 42 17.4, 25 Mississippi State 23 24.5
26% 67 Northwestern 23 18.0, 56 Rice 14 25.7
23% 76 Stanford 37 14.7, 28 North Carolina 34 27.6
7% 112 New Mexico State 28 20.5, 57 New Mexico 27 48.4
7% 110 Louisville 35 17.8, 62 Illinois 9 47.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 8 0.75 16 1.08 14 1.17 4 0.54 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 45 33 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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