prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 53 Southern Mississippi 55 67.7, 112 Southwestern Louisiana 0 6.1
93% 26 Colorado State 38 46.8, 106 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 10.8
92% 19 Central Florida 38 44.2, 102 Bowling Green 31 10.6
92% 15 Texas A&M 28 40.5, 104 North Texas 9 0.4
92% 6 Tennessee 42 43.0, 82 Houston 7 5.8
92% 1 Kansas State 62 54.8, 91 Northeast Louisiana 7 2.4
91% 46 Iowa 37 24.5, 100 Illinois 14 3.5
91% 13 Louisiana State 53 39.2, 83 Idaho 20 8.1
90% 47 Marshall 26 39.7, 105 Eastern Michigan 23 16.7
88% 12 Virginia Tech 27 32.0, 52 Pittsburgh 7 9.5
86% 21 Wisconsin 38 33.6, 74 Northwestern 7 8.1
86% 16 Colorado 18 34.8, 57 Baylor 16 13.8
86% 8 Oregon 63 46.1, 67 Stanford 28 23.3
84% 40 Miami - Ohio 28 25.2, 76 Toledo 14 9.0
83% 33 Wyoming 31 41.8, 69 Louisiana Tech 19 29.1
82% 27 Tulane 42 38.8, 72 Navy 24 22.5
82% 2 Nebraska 55 38.8, 17 Washington 7 19.7
81% 25 Texas Tech 31 30.6, 66 Iowa State 24 16.6
81% 23 Arizona 35 28.8, 63 San Diego State 16 14.6
77% 9 Florida 51 39.3, 24 Kentucky 35 29.7
77% 4 Florida State 30 33.7, 11 Southern California 10 20.9
76% 85 Maryland 30 31.6, 99 Temple 20 20.4
76% 39 Texas 59 37.9, 64 Rice 21 27.9
76% 36 West Virginia 44 33.1, 50 Tulsa 21 25.6
76% 35 Virginia 24 34.6, 78 Duke 0 24.7
76% 14 Michigan 29 34.3, 29 Michigan State 17 23.7
75% 54 Mississippi 48 24.1, 88 Southern Methodist 41 14.7
73% 86 Ohio 37 28.2, 101 Western Michigan 35 21.1
73% 56 Indiana 48 34.3, 97 Cincinnati 14 23.4
72% 92 Akron 52 26.8, 103 Ball State 14 15.8
63% 108 Central Michigan 46 37.7, 107 Kent State 7 33.9
62% 48 Arizona State 24 26.7, 41 Oregon State 3 24.9
55% 49 Mississippi State 38 24.5, 60 South Carolina 0 23.0
43% 30 Notre Dame 31 23.3, 22 Purdue 30 26.1
39% 59 California 24 19.6, 43 Washington State 14 22.9
37% 95 San Jose State 37 27.1, 80 New Mexico 20 30.7
30% 84 Kansas 39 19.0, 73 Alabama - Birmingham 37 24.8
24% 96 Arkansas State 20 13.2, 87 Hawaii 0 23.0
24% 77 Arkansas 42 19.4, 38 Alabama 6 29.9
24% 61 Georgia Tech 43 20.2, 45 North Carolina 21 29.2
23% 98 Louisville 52 28.7, 62 Boston College 28 38.3
23% 79 Wake Forest 29 10.7, 55 Clemson 19 22.7
21% 90 Nevada - Reno 27 21.5, 42 Fresno State 24 40.2
16% 89 Boise State 31 14.7, 51 Utah 28 32.5
16% 70 Texas Christian 35 11.4, 20 Air Force 34 29.8
7% 111 Rutgers 27 17.3, 75 Army 15 44.2
7% 110 New Mexico State 33 16.8, 81 Texas - El Paso 24 39.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 4 0.80 18 0.81 12 0.99 11 0.89 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 33 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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