prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 71 Toledo 27 33.6, 109 Ball State 6 3.5
92% 46 Brigham Young 38 41.7, 105 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 11.5
92% 43 Central Florida 38 50.3, 110 Northern Illinois 17 11.3
92% 24 West Virginia 37 42.1, 102 Temple 7 16.4
92% 3 Ohio State 41 41.0, 83 Illinois 0 3.1
91% 62 San Diego State 35 29.3, 104 Hawaii 13 3.1
91% 35 Arkansas 23 31.0, 89 Memphis State 9 8.0
91% 11 Virginia Tech 17 35.7, 76 Boston College 0 10.1
91% 8 Syracuse 63 54.6, 107 Cincinnati 21 12.4
91% 1 Kansas State 16 39.5, 30 Colorado 9 13.5
90% 13 Penn State 27 37.2, 79 Minnesota 17 14.4
88% 41 Iowa 26 26.8, 77 Northwestern 24 7.0
88% 15 Air Force 49 41.5, 78 Navy 7 18.2
85% 51 Marshall 30 31.3, 96 Ohio 23 14.8
84% 21 Missouri 35 38.2, 80 Iowa State 19 23.8
83% 4 Oregon 51 43.4, 52 Washington State 29 29.1
82% 90 Akron 45 37.4, 108 Kent State 16 27.9
82% 37 Wyoming 12 29.2, 66 Southern Methodist 7 13.6
81% 40 Louisiana Tech 44 41.6, 101 Northeast Louisiana 14 29.1
80% 69 East Carolina 26 26.2, 98 Alabama - Birmingham 7 12.3
79% 28 Washington 53 36.3, 74 Utah State 12 21.8
79% 6 Florida State 26 32.9, 45 Miami - Florida 14 19.1
78% 54 Miami - Ohio 24 27.4, 87 Bowling Green 12 14.0
77% 44 Kentucky 33 37.5, 70 South Carolina 28 27.3
76% 39 Colorado State 34 31.4, 75 Tulsa 7 19.7
76% 18 Texas 34 40.4, 55 Oklahoma 3 31.1
73% 5 California - Los Angel 52 35.6, 20 Arizona 28 27.7
71% 48 Baylor 31 35.6, 64 Kansas 24 29.2
70% 47 Southern Mississippi 56 33.5, 61 Louisville 21 27.8
68% 53 Oregon State 30 28.4, 81 Stanford 23 22.5
68% 29 Michigan State 38 28.6, 57 Indiana 31 21.4
65% 49 Alabama 20 26.0, 58 Mississippi 17 21.3
65% 9 Florida 22 32.0, 10 Louisiana State 10 27.5
64% 59 Clemson 23 22.1, 72 Maryland 0 17.6
64% 7 Tennessee 22 22.1, 14 Georgia 3 17.4
62% 32 Mississippi State 38 13.5, 31 Auburn 21 11.2
57% 23 Wisconsin 31 26.6, 16 Purdue 24 26.2
56% 85 Texas - El Paso 22 26.3, 93 New Mexico 19 24.9
50% 97 North Texas 21 29.9, 103 Boise State 13 28.8
50% 38 Texas Tech 24 23.6, 27 Oklahoma State 17 24.1
46% 26 Notre Dame 28 25.5, 33 Arizona State 9 25.6
43% 88 Idaho 52 19.0, 91 Arkansas State 14 19.8
43% 67 Texas Christian 21 24.8, 56 Fresno State 10 26.5
42% 92 San Jose State 20 26.6, 82 Rice 17 28.5
40% 94 Central Michigan 36 27.2, 100 Eastern Michigan 23 28.7
36% 60 North Carolina 29 16.9, 42 Pittsburgh 10 21.2
32% 99 Western Michigan 27 18.6, 86 Vanderbilt 24 23.6
30% 34 Georgia Tech 47 27.2, 22 North Carolina State 24 33.2
23% 84 Duke 19 21.7, 65 Wake Forest 16 31.4
22% 106 New Mexico State 48 25.9, 73 Nevada - Reno 45 37.5
19% 95 Army 38 12.4, 68 Houston 28 26.9
15% 50 California 32 9.2, 17 Southern California 31 26.8
10% 25 Texas A&M 28 8.8, 2 Nebraska 21 29.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.60 11 1.10 10 1.05 12 0.89 11 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 53 39 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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