prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 55 Marshall 42 48.2, 110 Kent State 7 9.9
92% 57 Miami - Ohio 28 33.7, 107 Ball State 17 6.2
92% 50 Brigham Young 31 32.1, 106 Hawaii 9 5.8
92% 44 Wyoming 28 35.9, 104 Nevada - Las Vegas 25 9.5
92% 25 Georgia 31 31.5, 87 Vanderbilt 6 1.5
92% 22 Wisconsin 37 32.5, 90 Illinois 3 5.0
92% 5 Ohio State 45 45.4, 74 Minnesota 15 3.7
91% 39 Colorado State 47 42.1, 105 New Mexico State 28 19.6
91% 8 Florida State 48 32.9, 54 Clemson 0 6.2
91% 2 Nebraska 41 46.8, 61 Kansas 0 14.7
91% 1 Kansas State 52 42.6, 33 Oklahoma State 20 12.3
90% 95 Memphis State 41 39.4, 108 Cincinnati 23 20.2
90% 35 Southern Mississippi 37 29.2, 88 Army 13 7.7
90% 13 Michigan 12 35.1, 69 Northwestern 6 12.6
90% 9 Syracuse 42 42.3, 75 Boston College 25 17.7
88% 32 Louisiana Tech 54 44.1, 98 Alabama - Birmingham 23 20.9
86% 28 North Carolina State 27 37.3, 72 Duke 24 17.5
86% 7 Florida 24 26.5, 36 Auburn 3 8.1
85% 23 Missouri 20 30.6, 59 Oklahoma 6 11.5
83% 34 Tulane 28 48.4, 79 Louisville 22 36.3
79% 15 Texas A&M 35 26.5, 49 Baylor 14 14.7
75% 40 Arkansas 41 23.5, 64 South Carolina 28 15.0
75% 29 Arizona 28 26.5, 58 Oregon State 7 18.1
75% 24 Southern California 42 32.1, 56 Washington State 14 23.7
74% 26 Washington 21 30.2, 51 California 13 21.3
73% 46 Alabama 23 26.0, 68 East Carolina 22 17.5
72% 63 San Diego State 36 30.4, 96 New Mexico 33 23.3
71% 71 Toledo 24 22.2, 84 Bowling Green 16 15.6
69% 97 Western Michigan 45 32.7, 101 Eastern Michigan 35 27.4
68% 83 Texas - El Paso 28 22.7, 93 San Jose State 21 17.5
65% 31 Colorado 19 22.1, 37 Texas Tech 17 18.1
64% 3 California - Los Angel 41 47.5, 4 Oregon 38 44.1
63% 81 Rice 14 27.4, 82 Tulsa 10 24.4
62% 17 Penn State 31 28.7, 19 Purdue 13 25.9
61% 18 Georgia Tech 41 26.8, 16 Virginia 38 24.9
59% 91 Ohio 28 27.7, 86 Akron 14 26.7
59% 53 Indiana 14 23.6, 52 Iowa 7 22.2
58% 65 Wake Forest 20 20.1, 78 Maryland 10 18.3
57% 66 Utah 24 25.5, 62 Fresno State 16 24.8
53% 76 Idaho 26 28.8, 89 Utah State 14 27.8
50% 92 North Texas 27 25.2, 80 Nevada - Reno 21 25.6
47% 67 Southern Methodist 10 22.0, 60 Texas Christian 6 23.0
23% 43 Kentucky 39 32.5, 14 Louisiana State 36 41.9
20% 109 Northern Illinois 16 22.1, 94 Central Michigan 6 32.3
8% 112 Southwestern Louisiana 21 20.4, 102 Arkansas State 19 39.9
8% 100 Temple 28 1.1, 10 Virginia Tech 24 44.7
7% 111 Rutgers 25 9.5, 45 Pittsburgh 21 50.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.28 7 1.55 9 1.19 7 1.00 17 0.90 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 40 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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