prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 85 Bowling Green 42 39.6, 111 Kent State 21 13.0
93% 61 Miami - Ohio 41 44.2, 110 Cincinnati 0 19.0
93% 34 Tulane 52 43.6, 108 Rutgers 24 16.7
92% 54 Marshall 42 36.3, 107 Ball State 10 4.9
92% 45 Central Florida 42 47.4, 112 Southwestern Louisiana 10 18.3
92% 31 Virginia Tech 41 35.1, 101 Alabama - Birmingham 0 5.8
92% 23 Arizona 45 42.6, 99 Northeast Louisiana 7 5.2
92% 18 Purdue 42 38.9, 92 Illinois 9 4.5
92% 5 Ohio State 36 38.3, 65 Northwestern 10 6.0
92% 1 Kansas State 52 50.5, 72 Iowa State 7 11.2
91% 53 Mississippi 30 34.8, 106 Arkansas State 17 7.1
91% 10 Air Force 42 40.5, 80 Tulsa 21 14.9
91% 7 Tennessee 35 35.9, 49 Alabama 18 7.1
90% 21 Notre Dame 20 39.4, 93 Army 17 8.8
90% 3 California - Los Angel 28 37.3, 42 California 16 14.7
87% 56 Southern Methodist 10 35.8, 100 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 17.8
87% 28 Southern Mississippi 41 30.9, 70 East Carolina 7 10.4
85% 47 Wyoming 34 25.0, 81 Rice 24 8.6
85% 46 Brigham Young 46 33.7, 95 San Jose State 43 15.0
84% 2 Nebraska 20 35.1, 26 Missouri 13 15.1
82% 4 Oregon 17 44.4, 20 Southern California 13 31.1
81% 43 Arizona State 44 36.0, 79 Stanford 38 22.2
81% 11 Texas A&M 17 24.3, 39 Texas Tech 10 10.3
79% 27 Washington 35 32.3, 58 Oregon State 34 18.0
79% 14 Texas 30 44.5, 50 Baylor 20 33.4
78% 62 Fresno State 32 26.0, 82 Texas - El Paso 6 15.3
78% 36 Colorado State 42 24.0, 57 Texas Christian 21 12.1
78% 16 Virginia 23 31.5, 35 North Carolina State 13 20.4
78% 15 Wisconsin 31 25.2, 44 Iowa 0 14.6
77% 64 Louisville 35 36.1, 94 Memphis State 32 27.8
76% 41 Oklahoma State 41 26.6, 52 Oklahoma 26 17.3
75% 25 Michigan 21 26.6, 48 Indiana 10 16.4
63% 97 New Mexico 30 25.4, 105 Hawaii 20 21.9
63% 67 San Diego State 21 25.8, 66 Utah 20 22.9
63% 60 Duke 28 22.4, 59 Clemson 23 19.7
63% 17 Louisiana State 41 29.9, 22 Mississippi State 6 26.7
63% 6 Florida State 34 32.9, 13 Georgia Tech 7 28.6
60% 76 Houston 31 23.4, 90 North Texas 9 20.8
59% 98 Central Michigan 26 29.7, 89 Western Michigan 24 28.4
58% 51 North Carolina 38 20.5, 63 Wake Forest 31 18.5
55% 74 Toledo 24 25.2, 86 Akron 17 23.9
40% 40 Auburn 32 32.9, 24 Louisiana Tech 17 35.2
40% 30 Georgia 28 27.6, 38 Kentucky 26 29.0
38% 103 Boise State 30 27.3, 96 Utah State 16 30.5
35% 109 Northern Illinois 26 26.0, 102 Eastern Michigan 14 29.2
33% 91 Nevada - Reno 58 26.3, 78 Idaho 23 31.2
33% 87 Vanderbilt 17 16.9, 68 South Carolina 14 22.5
32% 84 Navy 32 23.7, 75 Boston College 31 29.0
25% 37 Miami - Florida 34 25.3, 19 West Virginia 31 33.3
23% 71 Minnesota 19 24.6, 32 Michigan State 18 34.6
21% 69 Kansas 33 18.4, 29 Colorado 17 30.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.29 12 0.78 12 0.97 10 1.18 13 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 51 41 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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