prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 37 Tulane 72 52.9, 111 Southwestern Louisiana 20 6.6
92% 14 Penn State 27 37.3, 91 Illinois 0 1.6
92% 9 Air Force 31 42.0, 77 Southern Methodist 7 9.5
92% 7 Tennessee 49 39.5, 74 South Carolina 14 9.3
92% 2 Florida State 39 40.3, 48 North Carolina 13 8.3
92% 1 Kansas State 54 45.8, 54 Kansas 6 15.1
91% 10 Syracuse 45 43.0, 72 Pittsburgh 28 14.5
91% 5 California - Los Angel 28 50.8, 79 Stanford 24 22.7
91% 3 Ohio State 38 36.2, 47 Indiana 7 10.7
90% 90 Western Michigan 48 40.0, 110 Kent State 23 25.7
90% 19 Georgia Tech 31 35.8, 80 Maryland 14 14.1
89% 29 Miami - Florida 35 36.5, 81 Boston College 17 13.8
87% 18 Virginia 38 31.2, 68 Wake Forest 17 13.4
84% 88 Texas - El Paso 30 21.8, 108 Hawaii 13 6.0
84% 17 Purdue 36 31.9, 53 Iowa 14 13.6
83% 71 Toledo 16 25.9, 103 Northern Illinois 3 11.8
83% 40 Michigan State 29 31.1, 69 Northwestern 5 15.1
82% 56 Miami - Ohio 35 25.9, 87 Ohio 21 11.0
81% 64 Nevada - Reno 52 39.0, 101 Boise State 24 25.8
81% 25 Michigan 15 28.4, 67 Minnesota 10 14.8
80% 8 Florida 38 21.1, 24 Georgia 7 9.3
79% 94 Memphis State 35 24.6, 107 Arkansas State 19 11.9
77% 34 North Carolina State 46 26.2, 58 Clemson 39 16.4
76% 15 Southern California 33 34.7, 33 Washington 10 25.5
75% 57 Fresno State 28 32.9, 96 New Mexico 20 25.2
74% 62 Utah 49 30.6, 95 San Jose State 17 23.0
72% 102 Northeast Louisiana 20 23.2, 104 Alabama - Birmingham 14 16.8
72% 49 Brigham Young 13 29.8, 66 San Diego State 0 22.7
71% 59 Oklahoma 17 28.0, 73 Iowa State 14 21.8
70% 30 Notre Dame 27 26.9, 45 Baylor 3 20.2
68% 76 Tulsa 20 28.0, 97 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 22.3
68% 13 Texas A&M 17 27.7, 39 Oklahoma State 6 21.7
61% 43 Arizona State 38 29.3, 61 Washington State 28 26.3
60% 42 California 20 15.8, 50 Oregon State 19 13.4
59% 51 Wyoming 34 19.8, 65 Texas Christian 27 17.5
59% 20 Missouri 28 20.8, 32 Texas Tech 26 18.7
56% 27 Virginia Tech 27 23.0, 21 West Virginia 13 22.7
52% 60 Houston 34 23.9, 75 East Carolina 31 23.1
50% 98 Central Michigan 28 24.7, 93 Akron 27 24.8
40% 100 Utah State 29 33.1, 99 New Mexico State 26 33.3
40% 85 Idaho 41 23.3, 92 North Texas 23 24.8
38% 35 Arkansas 24 14.6, 31 Auburn 21 17.1
29% 83 Bowling Green 34 20.7, 55 Marshall 13 27.6
28% 89 Vanderbilt 36 15.5, 63 Duke 33 22.5
27% 22 Arizona 38 28.8, 6 Oregon 3 36.6
25% 46 Alabama 30 15.9, 23 Southern Mississippi 20 24.7
24% 16 Texas 20 27.0, 4 Nebraska 16 37.2
23% 106 Rutgers 21 29.4, 86 Temple 10 37.2
16% 52 Mississippi 37 21.5, 11 Louisiana State 31 36.9
15% 82 Rice 35 15.7, 36 Colorado State 23 32.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.45 8 0.98 15 0.80 12 0.99 10 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 50 38 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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