prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 61 Fresno State 51 35.7, 108 Hawaii 12 2.9
92% 48 Miami - Ohio 56 50.0, 111 Kent State 0 5.8
92% 42 Central Florida 37 41.3, 106 Ball State 14 6.3
92% 37 Oklahoma State 44 55.4, 112 Southwestern Louisiana 20 10.4
92% 5 Florida 33 43.7, 80 South Carolina 14 6.7
92% 2 Florida State 24 41.3, 64 Wake Forest 7 8.6
91% 32 Southern Mississippi 45 35.0, 87 Memphis State 3 8.2
91% 29 West Virginia 28 42.1, 101 Rutgers 14 19.9
91% 4 Ohio State 45 31.7, 53 Iowa 14 6.6
90% 25 Penn State 41 32.0, 81 Northwestern 10 7.0
89% 33 Notre Dame 30 37.8, 92 Navy 0 14.5
89% 31 Miami - Florida 42 36.3, 91 Temple 7 15.7
87% 16 Tulane 49 39.8, 78 Army 35 21.9
87% 9 Arizona 27 29.8, 51 California 23 11.8
86% 71 Toledo 17 26.3, 99 Central Michigan 14 7.1
85% 84 Ohio 28 30.8, 105 Northern Illinois 12 12.9
84% 39 Kentucky 55 39.8, 86 Vanderbilt 17 22.4
82% 70 Rice 38 29.6, 95 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 14.9
81% 44 Brigham Young 31 28.7, 88 Texas - El Paso 14 14.8
80% 45 Colorado 37 31.3, 76 Iowa State 8 18.4
80% 21 Georgia Tech 24 33.9, 60 Clemson 21 20.6
80% 11 Air Force 10 31.6, 46 Wyoming 3 19.6
80% 1 Kansas State 40 29.3, 3 Nebraska 30 14.3
79% 102 Akron 24 37.8, 107 Eastern Michigan 21 28.6
79% 22 Virginia 30 31.4, 47 North Carolina 13 18.8
79% 6 Tennessee 28 30.5, 23 Arkansas 24 18.2
78% 50 Utah 41 36.2, 96 New Mexico 7 26.4
77% 90 Idaho 36 45.5, 104 New Mexico State 32 36.3
74% 72 San Diego State 34 29.0, 94 San Jose State 6 21.6
74% 14 Oregon 51 39.9, 28 Arizona State 19 32.7
73% 15 Syracuse 28 31.4, 24 Virginia Tech 26 24.4
73% 12 Texas A&M 17 22.0, 17 Missouri 14 15.3
66% 62 Stanford 38 32.7, 75 Washington State 28 28.3
66% 43 Colorado State 32 23.3, 63 Southern Methodist 10 17.9
65% 7 California - Los Angel 36 36.9, 30 Washington 24 32.2
63% 55 Indiana 20 24.2, 57 Minnesota 19 21.1
63% 36 Mississippi State 26 24.4, 41 Alabama 14 21.1
60% 8 Purdue 25 34.5, 27 Michigan State 24 31.9
59% 97 Utah State 28 16.9, 93 North Texas 27 15.6
56% 73 Texas Christian 17 22.8, 85 Tulsa 7 21.2
56% 68 Louisville 63 35.2, 82 East Carolina 45 34.0
43% 20 Michigan 27 14.4, 13 Wisconsin 10 16.0
40% 34 Texas Tech 42 28.9, 18 Texas 35 31.4
38% 38 Georgia 28 8.8, 35 Auburn 17 11.3
32% 77 Boston College 23 21.9, 74 Pittsburgh 15 26.5
31% 89 Western Michigan 56 29.8, 58 Bowling Green 27 35.4
30% 79 Maryland 42 17.7, 69 Duke 25 23.6
29% 65 Oklahoma 28 14.1, 52 Baylor 16 20.3
25% 109 Arkansas State 17 18.4, 100 Northeast Louisiana 13 25.7
7% 110 Cincinnati 44 19.4, 67 Houston 43 41.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.04 9 1.03 14 1.04 12 1.17 10 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 50 41 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net