prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 12 Michigan 48 50.0, 109 Hawaii 17 3.5
92% 5 Tennessee 41 46.4, 92 Vanderbilt 0 8.2
89% 4 Nebraska 16 32.1, 40 Colorado 14 8.5
87% 31 West Virginia 52 33.5, 81 Pittsburgh 14 15.9
77% 14 Arizona 50 36.9, 36 Arizona State 42 26.9
75% 15 Southern California 10 24.0, 26 Notre Dame 0 15.9
72% 18 Syracuse 66 37.4, 25 Miami - Florida 13 31.0
70% 34 Mississippi State 28 27.2, 53 Mississippi 6 20.2
69% 13 Georgia Tech 21 30.0, 37 Georgia 19 23.3
66% 23 Arkansas 41 29.8, 29 Louisiana State 14 25.6
61% 20 Tulane 63 52.5, 16 Louisiana Tech 30 50.6
59% 30 Penn State 51 19.2, 24 Michigan State 28 18.0
43% 41 North Carolina 37 26.7, 38 North Carolina State 34 28.0
38% 28 Texas 26 24.3, 9 Texas A&M 24 28.1
33% 27 Virginia 36 15.8, 22 Virginia Tech 32 20.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.86 5 0.92 4 1.36 2 1.14 2 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 12 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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