prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 6 Tulane 41 41.2, 48 Brigham Young 27 26.4
74% 14 Penn State 26 40.3, 39 Kentucky 14 32.8
71% 41 North Carolina 20 22.9, 57 San Diego State 13 15.8
70% 22 Air Force 45 26.2, 35 Washington 25 19.3
68% 25 Virginia Tech 38 23.4, 32 Alabama 7 17.3
67% 5 Ohio State 24 21.7, 11 Texas A&M 14 15.9
63% 17 Georgia Tech 35 29.2, 27 Notre Dame 28 25.5
58% 15 Missouri 34 27.8, 21 West Virginia 31 26.5
55% 26 Texas 38 30.4, 28 Mississippi State 11 29.5
50% 38 Miami - Florida 46 36.0, 37 North Carolina State 23 36.1
42% 23 Michigan 45 20.0, 18 Arkansas 31 21.6
41% 13 Wisconsin 38 28.1, 9 California - Los Angel 31 29.9
40% 3 Tennessee 23 20.5, 2 Florida State 16 22.8
37% 10 Florida 31 30.8, 4 Syracuse 10 34.8
35% 60 Marshall 48 33.8, 47 Louisville 29 38.0
35% 19 Arizona 23 20.6, 7 Nebraska 20 25.7
32% 30 Georgia 35 17.7, 24 Virginia 33 23.6
28% 8 Purdue 37 32.7, 1 Kansas State 34 40.4
24% 31 Colorado 51 24.0, 12 Oregon 43 33.5
22% 59 Mississippi 35 17.5, 34 Texas Tech 18 28.6
13% 58 Texas Christian 28 8.0, 16 Southern California 19 28.2
8% 91 Idaho 42 13.0, 20 Southern Mississippi 35 42.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.71 8 0.58 6 0.68 2 0.59 1 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 22 9 0.60
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net