10 Jan 2000: 1999 Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk u spd  off  def                    rnk u spd  off  def
  1 1   8 11.7  4.6 Nebraska           119 *   0  6.6  2.1 Southern Methodist
  2 1   8 12.3  4.1 Virginia Tech      120 *   0  9.6 -0.3 Southern Utah     
  3 1   8 12.3  3.8 Florida State      121 *   0  8.3  0.7 Southwest Missouri
  4 2   7 12.2  3.8 Kansas State       122 *   0  7.9  0.9 New Mexico        
  5 3   7 11.6  3.8 Tennessee          123 *   0  6.0  2.3 South Carolina    
  6 2   6 11.1  3.8 Miami - Florida    124 *   0  8.9  0.1 Brown             
  7 2   6 10.3  4.3 Wisconsin          125 *   0  8.3  0.6 Stephen F. Austin 
  8 3   6 10.9  3.9 Penn State         126 *   0  8.6  0.3 Texas - El Paso   
  9 2   6 10.9  3.5 Florida            127 *   0  9.6 -0.5 Tulane            
 10 5   5 11.0  3.2 Michigan           128 *   0  5.8  2.4 Saint John's      
 11 7   5 11.5  2.8 Texas              129 *   0  8.2  0.5 Duke              
 12 5   5 12.6  2.0 Georgia Southern   130 *   0  7.2  1.2 Hampton           
 13 4   5 11.2  3.0 Michigan State     131 *   0  9.3 -0.4 Murray State      
 14 4   5 10.9  3.0 Alabama            132 *   0  8.0  0.6 New Mexico State  
 15 5   5 11.0  2.9 Oklahoma           133 *   0  7.7  0.8 Army              
 16 5   5 10.2  3.3 Minnesota          134 *   0  7.7  0.9 Richmond          
 17 5   5  9.6  3.5 Marshall           135 *   0  7.5  1.0 Utah State        
 18 5   4  9.4  3.7 Southern Mississip 136 *   0  7.4  1.1 Pennsylvania      
 19 *   4 10.4  2.9 Arkansas           137 *   0  7.0  1.3 Harvard           
 20 *   4 11.3  2.1 Purdue             138 *   0 10.4 -1.3 Southern Illinois 
 21 *   4 11.1  2.3 Colorado           139 *   0  9.4 -0.6 Morehead State    
 22 *   4 11.4  1.9 Oregon             140 *   0  7.9  0.5 Ohio              
 23 9   4 11.9  1.5 Florida A&M        141 *   0  7.3  1.0 Maine             
 24 *   4 12.5  0.9 Georgia Tech       142 *   0  8.6  0.0 Northern Arizona  
 25 *   4  9.1  3.5 Texas A&M          143 *   0  7.7  0.7 Towson            
 26 9   4 10.1  2.7 Clemson            144 *   0  8.9 -0.3 Portland State    
 27 9   4  8.3  3.9 Mississippi State  145 *   0  8.4  0.1 Wofford           
 28 *   4  9.7  2.9 Ohio State         146 *   0  8.7 -0.1 Sacramento State  
 29 7   4 10.4  2.3 Illinois           147 *   0  7.4  0.8 Wagner            
 30 7   4 10.0  2.6 Utah               148 *   0  6.8  1.2 Valparaiso        
 31 7   4  9.8  2.7 Mississippi        149 9   0  8.5 -0.1 Bowling Green     
 32 9   4  9.8  2.5 East Carolina      150 *   0  7.2  0.9 Cornell           
 33 7   3 10.0  2.4 Massachusetts      151 *   0  8.5 -0.1 Grambling         
 34 *   3 10.1  2.3 Washington         152 9   0  8.0  0.2 Northern Illinois 
 35 *   3 10.4  2.1 Notre Dame         153 *   0  8.0  0.1 Sam Houston State 
 36 *   3  9.6  2.5 Southern Californi 154 9   0  8.1  0.1 Akron             
 37 *   3 11.2  1.3 Stanford           155 9   0  8.0  0.0 Indiana State     
 38 *   3 10.1  2.1 Georgia            156 *   0  7.4  0.4 Eastern Kentucky  
 39 *   3  9.6  2.5 Oregon State       157 *   0  7.2  0.5 Samford           
 40 9   3  9.6  2.4 Brigham Young      158 9  -1  6.2  1.2 McNeese State     
 41 *   3 10.5  1.7 Lehigh             159 9  -1  6.8  0.7 Northwestern State
 42 9   3 11.7  0.8 Louisiana Tech     160 *  -1  6.6  0.8 Temple            
 43 *   3  8.8  2.9 Auburn             161 *  -1  7.2  0.3 Eastern Michigan  
 44 9   3  9.9  2.1 Colorado State     162 *  -1  8.8 -0.9 Nevada - Reno     
 45 *   3  9.8  1.9 Furman             163 9  -1  7.4  0.1 Arkansas State    
 46 *   3  9.3  2.3 Texas Christian    164 9  -1  5.6  1.4 Arkansas - Pine Bl
 47 *   3 10.1  1.7 Jackson State      165 *  -1  6.5  0.8 Alabama A&M       
 48 *   3  8.7  2.7 San Diego State    166 *  -1  7.1  0.2 Marist            
 49 *   3 11.5  0.6 Louisville         167 *  -1  5.9  1.1 Lafayette         
 50 *   3  9.5  2.0 Hofstra            168 9  -1  6.5  0.7 East Tennessee Sta
 51 *   3  9.5  2.0 Fresno State       169 8  -1  5.7  1.3 Southwest Texas St
 52 *   2  9.5  2.0 Fairfield          170 8  -1  5.8  1.1 Texas Southern    
 53 *   2  8.9  2.3 Syracuse           171 *  -1  6.0  0.9 San Diego         
 54 *   2  9.9  1.6 West Virginia      172 8  -1  8.2 -0.7 Chattanooga       
 55 *   2  8.9  2.3 Air Force          173 *  -1  7.5 -0.3 Tulsa             
 56 *   2  9.4  1.9 Oklahoma State     174 *  -1  7.9 -0.5 Connecticut       
 57 *   2  8.7  2.4 Louisiana State    175 9  -1  6.4  0.6 Western Kentucky  
 58 *   2 10.6  0.9 Montana            176 9  -1  7.2  0.0 Eastern Washington
 59 *   2 10.1  1.3 Kentucky           177 *  -1  5.2  1.5 Tennessee Tech    
 60 *   2 10.1  1.3 Arizona            178 *  -1  8.7 -1.2 San Jose State    
 61 *   2 10.0  1.4 Illinois State     179 *  -1  7.5 -0.3 Northeastern      
 62 *   2  8.8  2.2 Elon               180 *  -1  7.9 -0.6 Middle Tennessee S
 63 *   2  7.8  3.0 Wake Forest        181 *  -1  7.3 -0.1 Bethune - Cookman 
 64 *   2  7.4  3.2 Memphis State      182 *  -1  6.4  0.4 Holy Cross        
 65 *   2  9.3  1.8 Arizona State      183 *  -1  5.9  0.8 Princeton         
 66 *   2  8.8  2.1 Iowa State         184 *  -1  5.8  0.8 Northeast Louisian
 67 *   2 10.2  1.1 Virginia           185 *  -1  8.4 -1.2 Howard            
 68 *   2  9.5  1.6 Boise State        186 *  -1  6.9 -0.1 Central Michigan  
 69 *   2  8.6  2.2 Appalachian State  187 8  -1  5.4  1.0 Rhode Island      
 70 *   2  9.4  1.6 Western Illinois   188 *  -2  6.5  0.1 California Poly   
 71 *   2 10.0  1.0 Colgate            189 *  -2  6.0  0.5 Nevada - Las Vegas
 72 *   2  9.0  1.7 Robert Morris      190 *  -2  6.0  0.4 Stony Brook       
 73 *   2  8.8  1.8 Maryland           191 8  -2  6.7 -0.1 Liberty           
 74 *   2  8.9  1.7 Boston College     192 *  -2  5.2  0.8 Davidson          
 75 *   2  9.0  1.6 Wyoming            193 *  -2  7.0 -0.6 Delaware State    
 76 *   2  8.3  2.1 Vanderbilt         194 8  -2  7.4 -0.9 Alcorn State      
 77 *   2  8.7  1.8 Georgetown         195 *  -2  6.8 -0.5 Rutgers           
 78 *   1  7.2  2.9 California         196 *  -2  6.3 -0.1 Central Connecticu
 79 *   1  9.9  0.8 Duquesne           197 7  -2  6.3 -0.1 Eastern Illinois  
 80 *   1  8.6  1.8 California - Los A 198 *  -2  5.9  0.0 Baylor            
 81 *   1  8.7  1.7 Texas Tech         199 *  -2  6.8 -0.7 Iona              
 82 *   1  7.7  2.4 Houston            200 8  -2  5.5  0.3 Charleston Souther
 83 *   1  7.8  2.2 Toledo             201 7  -2  6.7 -0.6 South Carolina Sta
 84 *   1  9.4  1.0 Northern Iowa      202 *  -2  4.3  1.2 North Texas       
 85 *   1  8.3  1.8 North Carolina Sta 203 *  -2  5.7  0.1 Columbia          
 86 *   1  9.3  1.1 Kansas             204 8  -2  6.4 -0.5 Southeast Missouri
 87 *   1  8.8  1.4 Yale               205 7  -3  6.6 -0.8 Kent State        
 88 *   1  9.3  1.0 Cincinnati         206 7  -3  6.4 -0.7 Western Carolina  
 89 *   1  8.6  1.5 Pittsburgh         207 8  -3  6.4 -0.8 Southwestern Louis
 90 *   1  8.2  1.7 Youngstown State   208 6  -3  6.5 -0.9 Alabama State     
 91 *   1  7.8  2.0 Troy State         209 6  -3  6.9 -1.2 California State -
 92 *   1 10.1  0.4 Western Michigan   210 *  -3  5.1  0.2 Monmouth          
 93 *   1  7.1  2.6 North Carolina     211 8  -3  5.2  0.1 Dartmouth         
 94 *   1  8.9  1.2 Dayton             212 *  -3  6.3 -0.9 Jacksonville      
 95 *   1  8.2  1.7 Alabama - Birmingh 213 6  -3  5.2 -0.1 Ball State        
 96 *   1  8.8  1.2 Miami - Ohio       214 *  -3  5.9 -0.6 Morgan State      
 97 *   1  9.1  1.0 Delaware           215 5  -3  7.0 -1.5 Jacksonville State
 98 *   1  9.0  1.0 Missouri           216 5  -3  4.6  0.4 The Citadel       
 99 *   1  7.9  1.9 Rice               217 *  -3  3.9  0.8 Siena             
100 *   1  9.8  0.4 Indiana            218 *  -4  5.5 -0.6 La Salle          
101 *   1  8.7  1.2 William & Mary     219 4  -4  5.8 -1.1 Fordham           
102 *   1  7.0  2.4 North Carolina A&T 220 4  -4  5.5 -0.9 Montana State     
103 *   1  8.0  1.7 Washington State   221 4  -4  5.7 -1.1 Weber State       
104 *   1  7.7  1.9 James Madison      222 9  -4  4.9 -0.5 Norfolk State     
105 *   1  9.5  0.5 Tennessee State    223 4  -4  5.1 -0.8 Mississippi Valley
106 *   1  9.5  0.5 Villanova          224 4  -4  6.8 -2.2 Idaho State       
107 *   1  8.4  1.3 Central Florida    225 4  -4  4.6 -0.5 Buffalo           
108 *   1  7.8  1.7 Drake              226 3  -4  4.9 -0.8 Saint Mary's      
109 *   1  8.3  1.3 Navy               227 3  -5  4.5 -0.8 Nicholls State    
110 *   1  7.6  1.8 Southern           228 8  -5  5.5 -1.9 Butler            
111 *   1  8.8  0.9 Albany             229 3  -6  3.5 -0.8 Saint Peter's     
112 *   0  8.8  0.9 Idaho              230 2  -6  5.1 -2.5 Austin Peay       
113 *   0  8.6  0.8 New Hampshire      231 2  -6  3.9 -1.6 Sacred Heart      
114 *   0  8.2  1.1 Bucknell           232 2  -6  3.1 -1.2 Saint Francis - Pe
115 *   0  8.7  0.7 Hawaii             233 1  -6  2.6 -0.9 Virginia Military 
116 *   0  7.3  1.7 South Florida      234 1  -7  3.2 -1.6 Prairie View      
117 *   0  6.7  2.1 Northwestern       235 1  -7  4.0 -2.2 Canisius          
118 *   0  7.6  1.3 Iowa               236 1  -9  3.6 -3.5 Tennessee - Martin

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=* for uncertainty greater than 9 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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