10 Jan 2000: 1999 Season end model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from model fit at the end of the season.

rnk u spd  off  def                    rnk u spd  off  def
  1 1   8 11.8  4.6 Nebraska           119 *   0  7.2  1.6 South Florida     
  2 1   8 12.8  3.8 Florida State      120 *   0  8.6  0.6 Missouri          
  3 1   8 12.6  3.8 Virginia Tech      121 *   0  8.2  0.8 Southwest Missouri
  4 2   7 11.9  3.9 Kansas State       122 *   0  6.4  2.2 Northwestern      
  5 1   7 11.1  4.3 Miami - Florida    123 *   0  8.4  0.6 Stephen F. Austin 
  6 3   7 11.8  3.6 Tennessee          124 *   0  6.0  2.4 South Carolina    
  7 2   7 11.1  4.1 Penn State         125 *   0  8.0  0.9 New Mexico        
  8 2   6 10.1  4.5 Wisconsin          126 *   0  9.6 -0.4 Murray State      
  9 4   6 13.1  2.2 Georgia Southern   127 *   0  8.8  0.2 Brown             
 10 3   6 11.3  3.2 Alabama            128 *   0  8.0  0.8 New Mexico State  
 11 3   6 11.4  3.0 Michigan State     129 *   0  7.9  0.8 Towson            
 12 4   5 11.3  2.9 Michigan           130 *   0  7.2  1.3 Harvard           
 13 4   5 11.3  2.9 Oklahoma           131 *   0 10.9 -1.5 Southern Illinois 
 14 5   5 10.7  3.3 Florida            132 *   0  7.3  1.1 Pennsylvania      
 15 7   5 11.0  2.9 Texas              133 *   0  8.6  0.1 Texas - El Paso   
 16 8   5 11.6  2.4 Colorado           134 *   0  8.0  0.5 Ohio              
 17 5   5  9.4  3.9 Marshall           135 *   0  7.4  1.0 Utah State        
 18 5   5 11.4  2.4 Illinois           136 *   0  8.3  0.3 Sam Houston State 
 19 6   5 10.2  3.2 Minnesota          137 *   0  8.8 -0.1 Sacramento State  
 20 6   4  9.3  3.7 Southern Mississip 138 *   0  7.4  1.0 Army              
 21 *   4 11.3  2.2 Oregon             139 *   0  9.0 -0.2 Northern Arizona  
 22 *   4 10.1  3.0 Arkansas           140 *   0  7.2  1.0 Maine             
 23 9   4 11.9  1.7 Florida A&M        141 *   0  9.3 -0.5 Morehead State    
 24 9   4 11.1  2.1 Purdue             142 *   0  5.8  2.1 Saint John's      
 25 *   4  8.2  4.1 Mississippi State  143 *   0  8.2  0.2 Duke              
 26 *   4 10.1  2.7 Mississippi        144 9   0  8.6  0.0 Wofford           
 27 *   4 10.1  2.6 Clemson            145 *   0  8.8 -0.3 Portland State    
 28 7   4 10.1  2.6 Massachusetts      146 *   0  7.0  1.1 Valparaiso        
 29 *   4 12.4  0.8 Georgia Tech       147 *   0  7.3  0.9 Cornell           
 30 7   4  9.9  2.7 Utah               148 *   0  8.6 -0.1 Grambling         
 31 *   4 10.1  2.4 Washington         149 *   0  7.3  0.8 Wagner            
 32 *   4 11.3  1.5 Stanford           150 9   0  8.4 -0.1 Bowling Green     
 33 *   3  9.8  2.5 East Carolina      151 9   0  7.4  0.6 Richmond          
 34 *   3  9.6  2.7 Texas Christian    152 9   0  8.1  0.1 Northern Illinois 
 35 *   3  9.4  2.8 Ohio State         153 9   0  8.2  0.0 Akron             
 36 *   3  8.5  3.4 Texas A&M          154 *   0  9.3 -0.8 Tulane            
 37 *   3 10.3  2.0 Georgia            155 9   0  6.2  1.3 McNeese State     
 38 *   3  9.1  2.9 Auburn             156 *   0  7.3  0.4 Eastern Kentucky  
 39 *   3  9.7  2.5 Southern Californi 157 *   0  6.0  1.4 Lafayette         
 40 9   3 10.2  2.0 Illinois State     158 *   0  7.4  0.3 Samford           
 41 *   3 10.0  2.0 Furman             159 *   0  8.1 -0.2 Indiana State     
 42 *   3  9.3  2.6 Oregon State       160 *  -1  7.6  0.0 Arkansas State    
 43 9   3 11.7  0.8 Louisiana Tech     161 *  -1  7.2  0.3 Eastern Michigan  
 44 *   3 10.4  1.7 Notre Dame         162 *  -1  6.5  0.8 Temple            
 45 9   3 10.0  2.0 Colorado State     163 *  -1  6.1  1.0 San Diego         
 46 *   3  8.9  2.8 San Diego State    164 9  -1  6.5  0.8 Alabama A&M       
 47 *   3  9.6  2.3 Fresno State       165 9  -1  6.4  0.7 Northwestern State
 48 *   3 10.3  1.7 Jackson State      166 9  -1  5.5  1.4 Arkansas - Pine Bl
 49 *   3  9.0  2.6 Brigham Young      167 9  -1  5.8  1.2 Texas Southern    
 50 *   3 11.5  0.8 Louisville         168 *  -1  5.2  1.6 Tennessee Tech    
 51 *   3 10.2  1.7 Lehigh             169 8  -1  5.5  1.3 Southwest Texas St
 52 *   3  7.9  3.3 Wake Forest        170 *  -1  7.3 -0.1 Marist            
 53 *   3  9.8  1.9 Boise State        171 8  -1  6.1  0.8 East Tennessee Sta
 54 *   2  7.4  3.6 Memphis State      172 *  -1  8.8 -1.2 Nevada - Reno     
 55 *   3  9.3  2.1 Hofstra            173 *  -1  7.8 -0.6 Middle Tennessee S
 56 *   2 10.1  1.5 West Virginia      174 *  -1  7.3 -0.2 Bethune - Cookman 
 57 *   2  9.6  1.8 Fairfield          175 8  -1  7.2 -0.1 Eastern Washington
 58 *   2  8.7  2.5 Louisiana State    176 9  -1  8.4 -1.0 Chattanooga       
 59 *   2 10.6  1.1 Montana            177 *  -1  7.5 -0.4 Tulsa             
 60 *   2  8.9  2.3 Elon               178 *  -1  6.1  0.7 Princeton         
 61 *   2  9.2  1.9 Oklahoma State     179 *  -1  7.3 -0.3 Northeastern      
 62 *   2  9.7  1.5 Western Illinois   180 *  -1  6.4  0.4 Stony Brook       
 63 *   2  8.8  2.1 Iowa State         181 *  -1  6.6  0.2 Holy Cross        
 64 *   2  8.5  2.3 Syracuse           182 *  -1  8.7 -1.4 San Jose State    
 65 *   2  9.3  1.7 Robert Morris      183 8  -1  6.1  0.5 Western Kentucky  
 66 *   2  8.8  2.0 Appalachian State  184 8  -1  6.0  0.6 Northeast Louisian
 67 *   2  9.0  1.8 Arizona State      185 *  -2  6.9 -0.1 Central Michigan  
 68 *   2  8.8  2.0 Youngstown State   186 *  -2  7.7 -0.8 Connecticut       
 69 *   2  8.8  2.0 Air Force          187 *  -2  6.4  0.2 California Poly   
 70 *   2  9.7  1.3 Kentucky           188 *  -2  7.0 -0.4 Delaware State    
 71 *   2  9.2  1.6 Boston College     189 *  -2  6.0  0.4 Nevada - Las Vegas
 72 *   2  8.4  2.2 Vanderbilt         190 8  -2  6.6 -0.2 Liberty           
 73 *   2 10.0  1.0 Arizona            191 8  -2  6.4  0.0 Eastern Illinois  
 74 *   2  8.1  2.3 Toledo             192 *  -2  8.3 -1.5 Howard            
 75 *   2  9.3  1.4 Wyoming            193 *  -2  5.2  0.8 Davidson          
 76 *   2  7.7  2.6 Houston            194 7  -2  4.9  1.0 Rhode Island      
 77 *   2  7.2  2.9 California         195 7  -2  5.7  0.3 Charleston Souther
 78 *   2  9.9  0.9 Colgate            196 *  -2  7.3 -0.9 Iona              
 79 *   2  8.7  1.7 Georgetown         197 *  -2  6.8 -0.5 Rutgers           
 80 *   1 10.2  0.6 Duquesne           198 *  -2  6.3 -0.2 Central Connecticu
 81 *   1  8.8  1.6 Maryland           199 7  -2  6.7 -0.5 Kent State        
 82 *   1  9.4  1.2 Cincinnati         200 7  -2  6.7 -0.6 Southeast Missouri
 83 *   1 10.2  0.6 Virginia           201 9  -2  7.4 -1.1 Alcorn State      
 84 *   1  9.7  0.9 Northern Iowa      202 *  -2  5.7  0.1 Columbia          
 85 *   1  8.7  1.6 Texas Tech         203 6  -2  6.8 -0.8 South Carolina Sta
 86 *   1 10.3  0.4 Western Michigan   204 *  -2  4.1  1.2 North Texas       
 87 *   1  9.4  1.0 Kansas             205 8  -3  6.5 -0.8 Southwestern Louis
 88 *   1  8.2  1.9 California - Los A 206 *  -3  5.8 -0.2 Baylor            
 89 *   1  9.2  1.1 Delaware           207 6  -3  6.5 -0.9 Western Carolina  
 90 *   1  9.0  1.2 Dayton             208 7  -3  5.4 -0.1 Dartmouth         
 91 *   1  8.2  1.8 Alabama - Birmingh 209 6  -3  6.4 -0.9 Alabama State     
 92 *   1  6.9  2.8 North Carolina     210 9  -3  6.0 -0.7 Morgan State      
 93 *   1  8.8  1.3 Yale               211 8  -3  5.2 -0.2 Ball State        
 94 *   1  7.9  2.0 North Carolina Sta 212 5  -3  7.0 -1.6 Jacksonville State
 95 *   1  8.8  1.3 William & Mary     213 *  -3  3.8  0.9 Siena             
 96 *   1  7.6  2.2 Troy State         214 5  -3  6.6 -1.4 California State -
 97 *   1  8.0  1.9 Washington State   215 *  -3  5.6 -0.6 La Salle          
 98 *   1  9.3  0.9 Albany             216 *  -3  6.0 -0.9 Jacksonville      
 99 *   1  8.7  1.3 Pittsburgh         217 *  -3  4.7  0.1 Monmouth          
100 *   1  8.4  1.5 Navy               218 4  -3  4.4  0.2 The Citadel       
101 *   1  9.9  0.3 Indiana            219 7  -4  4.4 -0.2 Norfolk State     
102 *   1  9.8  0.4 Villanova          220 4  -4  5.2 -0.8 Mississippi Valley
103 *   1  9.2  0.8 Hawaii             221 4  -4  5.8 -1.3 Weber State       
104 *   1  7.9  1.8 Drake              222 4  -4  6.9 -2.2 Idaho State       
105 *   1  6.8  2.5 North Carolina A&T 223 5  -4  5.5 -1.2 Fordham           
106 *   1  7.7  1.8 James Madison      224 4  -4  4.4 -0.5 Buffalo           
107 *   1  8.8  0.9 Miami - Ohio       225 3  -4  4.9 -0.9 Montana State     
108 *   1  7.8  1.7 Rice               226 4  -5  4.8 -0.9 Saint Mary's      
109 *   0  8.8  0.9 New Hampshire      227 3  -5  4.2 -0.9 Nicholls State    
110 *   0  8.7  0.8 Idaho              228 7  -5  5.5 -2.2 Butler            
111 *   0  8.2  1.2 Central Florida    229 2  -6  3.7 -1.0 Saint Peter's     
112 *   0  9.2  0.4 Tennessee State    230 2  -6  4.1 -1.7 Sacred Heart      
113 *   0 10.0 -0.3 Southern Utah      231 2  -7  5.3 -2.8 Austin Peay       
114 *   0  8.3  1.0 Bucknell           232 2  -6  2.5 -0.7 Virginia Military 
115 *   0  6.7  2.2 Southern Methodist 233 3  -6  3.2 -1.3 Saint Francis - Pe
116 *   0  7.8  1.3 Iowa               234 1  -7  3.1 -1.6 Prairie View      
117 *   0  7.3  1.6 Hampton            235 1  -8  3.8 -2.5 Canisius          
118 *   0  7.3  1.6 Southern           236 1  -9  3.4 -3.6 Tennessee - Martin

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=* for uncertainty greater than 9 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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