prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 31 Notre Dame 48 28.6, 103 Kansas 13 20.0
74% 2 Florida State 41 42.2, 29 Louisiana Tech 7 31.7
69% 15 Penn State 41 23.8, 24 Arizona 7 18.9
27% 52 North Carolina State 23 33.1, 17 Texas 20 41.2
26% 34 Miami - Florida 23 22.3, 3 Ohio State 12 32.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 1.45 4 0.68 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 5 3 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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