prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 14 Penn State 70 41.1, 193 Akron 24 12.6
76% 51 North Carolina State 10 34.5, 94 South Carolina 0 24.3
75% 182 Central Michigan 33 27.3, 201 Eastern Illinois 17 20.1
75% 139 Sacramento State 41 27.3, 204 Saint Mary's 7 19.3
75% 89 Fresno State 34 34.7, 149 Portland State 6 25.8
75% 67 Minnesota 33 28.2, 138 Ohio 7 19.7
74% 134 South Carolina State 20 17.3, 206 Charleston Southern 14 8.9
74% 77 California 21 29.2, 189 Rutgers 7 20.0
73% 194 Cincinnati 41 39.1, 218 Kent State 3 30.2
73% 110 Tulsa 45 30.4, 158 Southwest Missouri Sta 21 23.0
73% 87 Indiana 21 28.4, 200 Ball State 9 19.3
72% 140 Morehead State 40 25.1, 177 Davidson 0 19.0
72% 132 Illinois 41 26.3, 216 Arkansas State 3 16.4
72% 115 Valparaiso 35 17.8, 224 Saint Francis - Pennsy 6 8.2
72% 98 Texas Southern 34 29.3, 214 Prairie View 0 17.7
72% 92 Bucknell 37 28.0, 217 Morgan State 10 15.8
72% 55 Tennessee State 41 34.7, 186 Alabama State 8 23.7
72% 43 Mississippi State 40 31.3, 187 Middle Tennessee State 7 19.7
72% 38 Georgia 38 27.5, 168 Utah State 7 16.1
72% 34 Louisiana State 29 36.7, 150 San Jose State 21 25.8
72% 5 Tennessee 42 29.4, 74 Wyoming 17 17.1
71% 222 La Salle 44 18.4, 224 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 12.7
71% 93 Western Kentucky 34 48.4, 227 Tennessee - Martin 10 33.5
71% 82 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 29.6, 209 Mississippi Valley Sta 9 19.8
71% 54 Oklahoma State 24 42.4, 219 Southwestern Louisiana 7 26.3
71% 49 Western Illinois 27 28.0, 202 Northern Illinois 21 17.3
71% 39 Hampton 21 38.0, 221 Delaware State 0 18.4
71% 23 Southern California 62 33.3, 208 Hawaii 7 18.1
71% 22 Georgia Tech 49 36.8, 146 Navy 14 27.2
71% 21 Missouri 31 33.0, 183 Alabama - Birmingham 28 18.0
71% 15 Wisconsin 49 35.5, 172 Murray State 10 20.0
71% 8 Syracuse 35 33.8, 112 Toledo 12 23.6
71% 7 California - Los Angel 38 49.2, 190 Boise State 7 31.2
71% 6 Florida 55 35.7, 114 Western Michigan 26 22.7
71% 4 Nebraska 42 27.0, 86 Iowa 7 16.7
70% 116 Iowa State 33 26.6, 130 Indiana State 3 21.0
70% 61 Elon 24 25.1, 161 Furman 22 19.3
70% 57 Alabama 28 25.7, 160 Vanderbilt 17 19.4
70% 46 Auburn 22 18.6, 63 Appalachian State 15 13.4
70% 30 Arkansas 26 24.3, 91 Southern Methodist 0 18.7
69% 9 Purdue 47 33.6, 60 Central Florida 13 26.6
68% 152 Texas - El Paso 13 28.9, 169 New Mexico 10 23.8
68% 64 Jackson State 35 39.6, 78 Howard 21 34.1
68% 18 Texas 69 38.1, 79 Stanford 17 30.4
67% 73 Mississippi 3 25.7, 148 Memphis State 0 21.1
66% 176 Southern Illinois 43 23.2, 213 Southeast Missouri Sta 25 19.6
64% 156 Chattanooga 29 16.0, 197 Samford 27 12.6
64% 44 Arizona State 31 31.8, 50 Texas Tech 13 28.2
63% 157 Grambling 41 27.6, 191 Alcorn State 25 23.6
63% 124 Pittsburgh 30 29.0, 118 Bowling Green 10 26.2
63% 65 Miami - Ohio 28 23.0, 106 Northwestern 3 20.4
63% 25 Virginia 20 26.4, 56 North Carolina 17 22.6
63% 13 Texas A&M 37 35.9, 29 Louisiana Tech 17 31.4
62% 111 Maryland 6 22.7, 162 Temple 0 20.6
62% 16 Michigan 26 20.9, 31 Notre Dame 22 18.7
60% 97 Boston College 30 23.4, 90 Baylor 29 22.0
60% 66 Oregon State 28 32.3, 96 Nevada - Reno 13 29.5
58% 26 Arizona 35 25.6, 80 Texas Christian 31 24.1
56% 72 Utah 27 25.3, 104 Washington State 7 23.8
48% 171 East Tennessee State 28 25.6, 144 The Citadel 10 26.6
47% 198 Northeast Louisiana 27 23.6, 175 Nicholls State 10 24.6
47% 127 Idaho 48 31.7, 123 Eastern Washington 21 32.4
41% 117 Houston 28 23.3, 81 Rice 0 25.2
41% 32 Miami - Florida 57 35.5, 10 Florida A&M 3 37.8
40% 36 Michigan State 27 33.9, 12 Oregon 20 36.8
39% 75 Marshall 13 20.3, 76 Clemson 10 22.3
39% 33 Southern Mississippi 48 30.6, 11 Tulane 14 34.4
34% 173 Nevada - Las Vegas 26 20.9, 170 North Texas 3 24.9
34% 163 Albany 35 16.6, 159 Central Connecticut 13 20.2
34% 109 Southern 20 24.1, 52 Northwestern State 13 29.4
34% 48 Colorado State 41 21.2, 37 Colorado 14 25.6
32% 188 Towson 34 23.9, 95 Monmouth 7 29.8
32% 155 Alabama A&M 37 18.8, 137 Jacksonville State 20 23.2
31% 85 San Diego State 41 17.6, 24 South Florida 12 23.0
29% 70 Louisville 56 44.3, 40 Kentucky 28 54.4
28% 135 East Carolina 30 24.8, 28 West Virginia 23 34.5
25% 101 Northern Iowa 41 13.4, 42 McNeese State 17 21.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.78 29 1.00 38 1.27 1 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 77 59 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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