prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 74 Mississippi 38 41.5, 229 Arkansas State 14 7.5
92% 44 Marist 20 44.2, 235 Saint Peter's 0 0.8
92% 41 Louisiana State 52 39.3, 205 North Texas 0 9.5
92% 18 Virginia Tech 31 38.9, 166 Alabama - Birmingham 10 6.1
92% 12 Wisconsin 50 45.2, 206 Ball State 10 3.9
92% 10 Penn State 20 39.0, 112 Pittsburgh 17 9.1
92% 3 Nebraska 45 34.6, 81 California 0 5.2
92% 1 Kansas State 40 57.6, 186 Temple 0 5.8
91% 17 Michigan 37 33.8, 109 Rice 3 9.2
91% 7 Syracuse 47 52.5, 187 Central Michigan 7 13.8
90% 124 Bethune - Cookman 28 33.2, 225 Morgan State 25 9.5
90% 86 Illinois State 55 44.3, 223 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 18.3
90% 68 Elon 51 38.2, 227 Delaware State 28 9.0
90% 52 Western Illinois 77 37.1, 213 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 6.7
90% 39 Mississippi State 13 32.0, 164 Memphis State 10 8.1
90% 31 Michigan State 51 44.9, 207 Eastern Michigan 7 13.2
90% 30 Arizona 34 43.1, 196 Middle Tennessee State 19 14.6
90% 14 Texas 38 50.6, 188 Rutgers 21 22.4
89% 118 Saint John's 35 24.0, 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 1.7
89% 64 Minnesota 35 33.3, 199 Northeast Louisiana 0 9.9
88% 42 North Carolina State 38 37.7, 177 William & Mary 9 13.8
88% 26 Fairfield 42 39.9, 201 Iona 6 12.0
88% 6 Florida 58 36.5, 70 Central Florida 27 12.9
87% 50 Duquesne 32 48.9, 228 La Salle 3 13.7
87% 15 Oregon 47 44.7, 156 Texas - El Paso 28 15.7
86% 67 Appalachian State 34 30.0, 197 Eastern Kentucky 28 7.6
86% 57 Kentucky 45 43.4, 184 Connecticut 14 22.0
86% 51 Louisville 58 40.3, 158 Chattanooga 30 21.1
86% 40 South Florida 17 35.7, 194 Southwest Texas State 10 7.7
86% 32 Hofstra 27 38.9, 161 Maine 19 20.8
86% 20 Georgia Southern 55 43.3, 190 Wofford 14 17.7
85% 56 Texas Tech 38 42.7, 224 Southwestern Louisiana 17 15.3
85% 24 Tulane 53 39.3, 115 Southern Methodist 19 17.2
84% 36 Louisiana Tech 55 62.7, 220 Sam Houston State 17 25.7
84% 29 Florida A&M 56 64.9, 230 Norfolk State 7 23.7
82% 131 Bowling Green 40 32.7, 218 Tennessee Tech 15 15.1
82% 35 Georgia 24 26.9, 98 South Carolina 9 11.5
82% 33 Colorado State 38 40.1, 107 Nevada - Reno 33 22.8
80% 136 Northern Arizona 55 27.3, 212 California Poly 21 13.9
80% 102 Maryland 51 20.6, 151 Western Carolina 10 9.0
80% 46 Colorado 63 35.5, 137 San Jose State 35 17.8
80% 34 Lehigh 49 33.9, 140 Fordham 7 18.4
80% 23 Southern Mississippi 40 30.7, 61 Northwestern State 6 17.1
80% 2 Florida State 41 33.0, 19 Georgia Tech 35 17.1
79% 153 Navy 48 37.3, 231 Kent State 28 20.9
79% 80 Oklahoma 49 24.6, 154 Indiana State 0 13.2
78% 72 Marshall 63 30.2, 133 Liberty 3 17.5
78% 8 Purdue 28 32.8, 27 Notre Dame 23 20.6
77% 77 Wyoming 41 21.6, 147 Weber State 16 7.2
77% 55 Georgetown 34 23.3, 139 Holy Cross 16 12.2
77% 53 Robert Morris 34 32.9, 100 Dayton 7 21.3
77% 43 Auburn 30 31.2, 104 Idaho 23 17.7
75% 160 Vanderbilt 34 26.0, 210 Northern Illinois 31 16.9
75% 114 Western Michigan 46 33.6, 181 Youngstown State 28 22.6
75% 69 Oklahoma State 46 28.9, 101 Tulsa 9 18.9
73% 59 Oregon State 46 24.1, 79 Fresno State 23 16.3
72% 117 Morehead State 56 34.8, 209 Butler 34 25.6
71% 54 Alabama 37 26.6, 87 Houston 10 18.3
70% 48 Hampton 28 27.0, 84 Howard 27 19.4
67% 75 Northern Iowa 36 25.0, 145 Ohio 12 18.6
66% 5 Ohio State 42 30.6, 9 California - Los Angel 20 24.3
65% 95 Troy State 31 24.3, 179 Cincinnati 24 18.0
64% 38 West Virginia 43 25.1, 49 Miami - Ohio 27 19.2
63% 159 Towson 35 21.9, 174 Lafayette 7 18.0
63% 122 Montana 41 30.8, 132 Sacramento State 38 26.5
63% 116 East Carolina 27 29.6, 128 Duke 9 25.7
62% 175 Southern Illinois 58 31.4, 183 Murray State 51 27.1
62% 58 North Carolina 42 23.5, 90 Indiana 30 19.8
61% 93 Southern 17 22.7, 94 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 9 19.7
60% 111 Stanford 54 29.3, 119 Washington State 17 26.3
60% 91 Iowa State 17 23.1, 89 Iowa 10 20.0
59% 180 James Madison 29 21.9, 171 Northeastern 21 19.9
59% 142 Grambling 36 27.4, 135 Alabama A&M 31 25.6
59% 130 Wagner 24 29.2, 173 Stony Brook 12 27.3
59% 47 Tennessee State 48 35.9, 62 Jackson State 33 33.9
57% 108 Kansas 71 28.6, 96 California State - Nor 14 27.1
52% 204 Samford 51 18.7, 217 Austin Peay 0 18.3
52% 191 Jacksonville 20 23.4, 208 Davidson 15 22.9
52% 170 Massachusetts 34 21.7, 146 New Hampshire 19 21.3
45% 219 Hawaii 31 24.4, 211 Eastern Illinois 27 25.5
45% 113 Wake Forest 34 24.2, 127 Army 15 25.1
44% 178 Utah State 51 19.1, 129 Stephen F. Austin 17 20.2
44% 63 Brigham Young 35 24.8, 45 Washington 28 26.0
40% 165 Villanova 35 19.7, 172 Richmond 30 22.3
38% 195 New Mexico State 35 31.5, 176 New Mexico 28 36.1
38% 167 Delaware 26 18.7, 162 The Citadel 16 22.1
38% 125 Northwestern 17 20.2, 78 Texas Christian 7 23.9
37% 203 Alcorn State 38 21.2, 198 Alabama State 27 25.3
37% 144 Albany 24 20.1, 126 Monmouth 16 25.6
35% 189 Boise State 35 25.6, 121 Southern Utah 27 31.0
33% 120 Illinois 38 15.3, 66 San Diego State 10 20.8
31% 169 Southwest Missouri Sta 37 20.4, 85 Texas Southern 7 27.7
31% 92 Bucknell 21 26.7, 73 Colgate 16 34.4
29% 232 Sacred Heart 9 15.3, 215 Siena 7 22.7
27% 202 Akron 17 31.0, 143 Buffalo 10 40.5
27% 149 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 18.7, 88 Baylor 24 29.2
24% 83 Clemson 33 18.2, 25 Virginia 14 29.5
15% 226 Prairie View 21 18.5, 84 Howard 7 39.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.09 22 0.92 20 1.06 30 1.13 13 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 98 79 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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