prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 97 Wagner 45 39.2, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 3.2
92% 87 Furman 58 50.2, 236 Virginia Military 0 8.3
92% 63 Jackson State 63 44.6, 225 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 16.1
92% 33 Hofstra 38 55.5, 209 California Poly 3 19.7
92% 25 Fairfield 59 50.8, 228 Canisius 20 6.4
92% 9 Purdue 31 43.3, 127 Northwestern 23 8.7
92% 8 Penn State 45 42.2, 107 Indiana 24 11.0
92% 4 Tennessee 17 44.4, 157 Memphis State 16 3.9
91% 92 Bucknell 38 36.6, 217 Delaware State 28 10.1
91% 43 Marshall 34 31.8, 183 Temple 0 5.0
90% 143 Western Kentucky 21 37.4, 229 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 12.4
90% 21 Georgia Southern 49 47.6, 148 Chattanooga 10 20.4
90% 12 Ohio State 34 41.4, 109 Cincinnati 20 10.9
88% 137 Alabama A&M 27 32.4, 223 Prairie View 3 11.8
88% 51 Robert Morris 27 31.5, 191 Central Connecticut 24 10.5
88% 18 Lehigh 31 32.0, 128 Princeton 0 9.8
88% 1 Florida State 42 36.0, 54 North Carolina 10 13.6
86% 45 Mississippi State 17 24.3, 135 South Carolina 0 6.0
85% 198 Iona 24 26.4, 231 Sacred Heart 0 8.9
85% 77 Southern 36 33.0, 196 Alabama State 13 14.8
85% 3 Kansas State 35 33.5, 64 Iowa State 28 12.1
84% 15 Syracuse 30 38.9, 58 West Virginia 7 20.8
83% 144 Ohio 45 28.7, 216 Buffalo 6 11.6
83% 100 Brown 35 31.4, 200 Lafayette 28 15.6
83% 74 Appalachian State 51 26.9, 189 The Citadel 0 12.5
83% 24 Texas 62 39.8, 130 Baylor 0 21.2
82% 48 Northern Iowa 34 34.5, 122 Southern Illinois 14 17.9
82% 7 Florida 38 42.1, 62 Kentucky 10 26.9
81% 65 Hampton 27 29.4, 140 Grambling 7 14.7
80% 20 Virginia Tech 31 22.8, 53 Clemson 11 10.3
80% 2 Nebraska 40 32.4, 35 Missouri 10 17.7
79% 106 Texas Christian 24 35.3, 219 Arkansas State 21 18.9
79% 66 Miami - Ohio 24 30.2, 179 Central Michigan 16 17.1
79% 57 Florida A&M 76 30.4, 151 South Carolina State 17 16.4
79% 56 Utah 52 27.4, 161 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 14.1
79% 39 Georgia 24 29.4, 96 Central Florida 23 15.5
78% 220 Eastern Illinois 42 32.5, 234 Tennessee - Martin 21 17.7
78% 218 Siena 32 19.9, 230 Saint Peter's 11 9.5
78% 104 Cornell 42 27.1, 190 Fordham 14 13.1
77% 149 Army 41 28.3, 202 Ball State 21 17.0
77% 147 Eastern Washington 48 43.1, 213 California State - Nor 41 27.6
77% 98 Western Michigan 24 37.6, 205 Northern Illinois 21 25.7
77% 52 Georgetown 30 19.8, 73 Saint John's 7 11.0
77% 10 Oregon 33 35.7, 26 Southern California 30 25.2
76% 129 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 33 26.9, 184 Alcorn State 17 16.9
75% 120 Montana 81 28.2, 181 Weber State 22 17.1
75% 78 Colgate 35 26.9, 171 Dartmouth 3 17.9
72% 101 Toledo 24 22.5, 154 Massachusetts 3 15.2
71% 116 Rice 20 23.2, 159 Navy 17 15.7
70% 82 Arizona 30 27.3, 163 Washington State 24 19.8
70% 81 Morehead State 50 40.7, 125 Dayton 39 32.0
70% 60 Elon 40 23.9, 102 North Carolina A&T 15 13.5
68% 168 East Tennessee State 38 25.9, 193 Western Carolina 10 18.2
68% 79 Fresno State 49 30.7, 139 Nevada - Reno 24 24.4
68% 16 Michigan State 27 22.8, 47 Illinois 10 16.3
67% 117 San Jose State 34 36.3, 146 Tulsa 10 29.8
67% 5 Texas A&M 23 21.1, 11 Southern Mississippi 6 15.9
64% 110 Howard 32 24.9, 123 Texas Southern 20 20.4
63% 103 Boston College 27 25.8, 166 Rutgers 7 21.6
62% 201 Wofford 35 20.5, 207 Charleston Southern 13 16.4
62% 187 Portland State 52 36.2, 214 Idaho State 13 31.5
61% 164 Richmond 27 26.0, 167 New Hampshire 17 22.7
61% 118 Sacramento State 41 34.8, 119 Montana State 10 31.8
60% 13 Michigan 21 18.8, 27 Wisconsin 16 16.7
59% 61 San Diego State 41 31.6, 88 Kansas 13 29.5
56% 165 James Madison 21 25.2, 155 Delaware 7 24.1
55% 197 Eastern Michigan 38 30.0, 188 Akron 17 28.9
55% 136 Yale 48 19.5, 112 Valparaiso 2 18.6
54% 59 Duquesne 31 18.2, 80 Marist 0 17.4
53% 111 California 24 20.4, 91 Arizona State 23 19.7
52% 182 Stony Brook 7 21.1, 162 Monmouth 3 20.7
49% 108 Illinois State 46 36.2, 134 Southwest Missouri Sta 42 36.4
41% 160 Northern Arizona 29 19.4, 170 Southwest Texas State 26 21.4
40% 90 Troy State 41 14.8, 68 South Florida 24 17.1
40% 38 Virginia 45 22.2, 41 Brigham Young 40 24.3
39% 36 Oklahoma 42 32.4, 37 Louisville 21 35.3
37% 131 Texas - El Paso 54 22.6, 83 New Mexico State 23 26.7
36% 156 Vanderbilt 31 21.7, 141 Duke 14 26.7
36% 132 Alabama - Birmingham 29 18.5, 76 Houston 10 23.0
36% 55 Washington 31 27.7, 31 Colorado 24 32.0
33% 180 Boise State 20 25.6, 113 New Mexico 9 32.2
33% 176 Columbia 28 14.7, 105 Towson 13 19.9
33% 172 Eastern Kentucky 17 16.9, 142 Samford 16 23.1
33% 46 Alabama 35 18.3, 19 Arkansas 28 24.2
32% 192 Nicholls State 45 18.7, 169 Jacksonville State 42 25.6
32% 99 Wake Forest 31 20.2, 50 North Carolina State 7 27.0
30% 185 Youngstown State 28 19.0, 94 Western Illinois 24 27.8
29% 158 Harvard 25 12.3, 138 Holy Cross 17 18.6
28% 215 Morgan State 24 15.3, 195 Rhode Island 21 22.8
26% 206 William & Mary 42 17.2, 175 Northeastern 30 26.3
26% 186 Connecticut 34 13.9, 133 Maine 20 22.6
25% 70 Stanford 42 33.4, 22 California - Los Angel 32 42.6
23% 227 Southwestern Louisiana 45 25.1, 178 Middle Tennessee State 31 35.9
22% 153 Villanova 34 19.0, 89 Pennsylvania 6 31.5
21% 210 Hawaii 20 14.6, 150 Southern Methodist 0 28.7
20% 69 Wyoming 10 17.5, 23 Air Force 7 31.5
17% 224 Kent State 41 22.5, 124 Bowling Green 27 38.4
17% 199 Northeast Louisiana 38 12.2, 75 Northwestern State 37 28.8
16% 86 Mississippi 24 10.4, 29 Auburn 17 26.1
14% 72 East Carolina 27 15.7, 6 Miami - Florida 23 35.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.26 25 0.74 30 0.97 24 0.94 11 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 100 71 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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