prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 42 Duquesne 51 47.1, 232 Saint Peter's 6 2.0
92% 36 Florida A&M 66 48.8, 203 Morgan State 10 15.6
92% 23 Fairfield 41 43.1, 162 Central Connecticut 14 8.1
92% 20 Georgia Southern 62 69.7, 235 Virginia Military 0 8.1
92% 12 Lehigh 63 37.4, 145 Columbia 13 3.8
92% 2 Nebraska 38 38.9, 73 Oklahoma State 14 7.6
92% 1 Florida State 51 49.0, 153 Duke 23 5.1
91% 8 Michigan State 49 31.2, 88 Iowa 3 5.1
90% 133 North Carolina A&T 28 35.0, 230 Norfolk State 14 11.4
90% 94 Pittsburgh 55 24.0, 202 Temple 24 3.6
90% 89 Central Florida 31 40.5, 214 Eastern Illinois 21 16.1
90% 60 Furman 27 38.0, 208 Western Carolina 19 10.4
90% 51 Appalachian State 23 37.3, 159 East Tennessee State 19 13.2
90% 49 Georgetown 28 37.3, 182 Iona 0 14.9
90% 45 Louisiana Tech 41 51.4, 218 Southwestern Louisiana 31 21.6
89% 64 Louisville 45 51.5, 176 Eastern Michigan 10 30.0
88% 21 Minnesota 33 25.6, 109 Northwestern 14 7.1
87% 124 Ohio 31 40.3, 215 Kent State 3 19.9
87% 96 Boston College 33 34.3, 198 Northeastern 22 15.3
87% 25 Tennessee State 36 38.6, 130 Alabama A&M 15 19.5
86% 139 Eastern Kentucky 37 33.5, 227 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 14.0
86% 82 Wake Forest 17 32.6, 171 Rutgers 10 14.1
86% 41 Hofstra 27 36.4, 158 Massachusetts 14 17.5
85% 121 Kansas 27 29.5, 209 Southern Methodist 9 11.2
84% 160 Jacksonville 28 42.2, 233 Austin Peay 21 23.0
83% 142 Marist 49 26.8, 225 Canisius 7 10.1
83% 105 Albany 44 24.4, 186 Stony Brook 21 9.8
82% 98 Northwestern State 42 36.6, 177 Nicholls State 17 20.6
80% 92 Alabama - Birmingham 47 29.0, 166 Northeast Louisiana 0 15.0
80% 69 Troy State 48 39.2, 188 Middle Tennessee State 31 22.6
79% 212 Tennessee Tech 28 29.9, 234 Tennessee - Martin 2 18.0
79% 137 Samford 34 30.8, 196 Jacksonville State 18 17.5
79% 128 Dayton 42 36.2, 195 Butler 7 22.1
79% 118 Western Michigan 38 38.9, 178 Central Michigan 16 26.9
79% 62 Colorado State 46 37.9, 122 New Mexico State 7 23.9
78% 205 California State - Nor 41 39.0, 228 Idaho State 27 26.7
78% 189 Alabama State 35 31.0, 229 Mississippi Valley Sta 27 18.7
78% 77 Fresno State 26 28.3, 123 Texas Christian 19 16.4
78% 65 Mississippi 36 19.9, 132 South Carolina 10 9.4
78% 10 Georgia Tech 49 30.5, 34 Maryland 31 17.7
77% 55 East Carolina 33 31.6, 129 Army 14 19.6
77% 47 Brigham Young 34 36.1, 116 Utah State 31 24.6
77% 19 Syracuse 47 42.3, 43 Tulane 17 31.2
76% 22 Southern California 37 29.3, 37 Oregon State 29 19.3
75% 181 Northern Illinois 45 21.8, 226 Buffalo 21 12.6
75% 46 Mississippi State 42 26.7, 103 Vanderbilt 14 17.8
74% 174 Baylor 23 22.4, 207 North Texas 10 13.9
74% 17 Tennessee 24 24.5, 32 Auburn 0 15.3
73% 200 Arkansas State 45 33.7, 219 Sam Houston State 20 24.9
73% 84 Robert Morris 23 29.4, 112 Wagner 21 20.3
73% 83 Yale 17 29.8, 144 San Diego 6 21.4
73% 56 Missouri 27 24.8, 107 Memphis State 17 17.0
69% 163 Princeton 27 22.3, 192 Fordham 0 16.0
69% 126 Towson 14 24.4, 150 Holy Cross 0 17.8
68% 216 The Citadel 20 24.2, 224 South Carolina State 14 17.5
68% 175 Connecticut 20 24.7, 194 Rhode Island 9 18.6
68% 68 Colgate 24 26.0, 125 Harvard 21 19.2
67% 157 Nevada - Reno 26 32.2, 183 Nevada - Las Vegas 12 26.1
66% 193 Lafayette 20 15.2, 197 Dartmouth 10 11.1
66% 90 South Florida 21 27.7, 100 Southern Illinois 14 21.8
64% 72 Wyoming 28 26.3, 79 Idaho 13 21.3
63% 168 New Hampshire 38 27.1, 180 Stephen F. Austin 28 22.5
63% 14 Virginia Tech 31 25.1, 31 Virginia 7 20.5
63% 11 Michigan 38 27.8, 18 Purdue 12 23.7
62% 106 Bucknell 23 23.8, 152 Pennsylvania 16 20.2
62% 54 Georgia 23 23.2, 61 Louisiana State 22 19.8
62% 26 Notre Dame 34 20.0, 27 Oklahoma 30 16.7
61% 63 Clemson 31 21.6, 66 North Carolina 20 18.6
59% 40 Marshall 32 20.6, 67 Miami - Ohio 14 18.8
59% 4 Kansas State 35 30.8, 13 Texas 17 29.1
57% 119 Rice 20 20.1, 155 Tulsa 10 18.9
57% 86 Cornell 33 22.7, 110 Brown 28 21.4
55% 179 Western Kentucky 21 31.1, 165 Murray State 15 30.1
54% 29 Air Force 23 20.3, 52 San Diego State 22 19.6
51% 164 Delaware 41 21.4, 147 Richmond 33 21.3
49% 167 Youngstown State 31 20.9, 190 Indiana State 28 21.0
46% 76 Southern 21 17.3, 70 Hampton 6 18.0
40% 149 Maine 35 21.1, 111 McNeese State 7 23.7
40% 141 Eastern Washington 14 34.6, 146 Northern Arizona 10 37.2
38% 185 Wofford 41 19.9, 170 Chattanooga 34 24.8
37% 213 La Salle 17 21.6, 210 Siena 7 25.5
36% 151 Washington State 31 16.1, 99 California 7 20.3
36% 148 Bowling Green 34 19.2, 93 Toledo 23 23.7
34% 206 Akron 31 23.8, 199 Ball State 9 29.1
30% 138 Southwest Missouri Sta 27 25.7, 108 Western Illinois 17 33.0
27% 201 Delaware State 43 22.3, 136 Bethune - Cookman 29 30.8
27% 117 Indiana 34 19.4, 53 Illinois 31 29.6
26% 173 Hawaii 33 19.4, 91 Texas - El Paso 3 27.9
25% 81 Kentucky 31 24.6, 24 Arkansas 20 34.1
25% 28 Wisconsin 42 16.0, 16 Ohio State 17 24.7
24% 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 24 4.8, 231 Sacred Heart 23 11.4
24% 154 James Madison 23 16.7, 104 Villanova 20 26.7
24% 57 Washington 34 30.9, 9 Oregon 20 41.1
22% 101 Illinois State 47 25.4, 38 Northern Iowa 28 36.5
20% 172 Valparaiso 27 11.8, 80 Drake 17 25.1
20% 115 Arizona State 28 22.9, 30 California - Los Angel 27 37.3
20% 114 San Jose State 44 30.4, 59 Stanford 39 43.2
18% 211 California Poly 38 21.4, 113 Southern Utah 10 36.0
18% 143 Navy 31 18.3, 71 West Virginia 28 33.9
18% 35 Alabama 40 16.9, 5 Florida 39 32.6
17% 140 Portland State 51 36.0, 33 Montana 48 52.8
15% 222 Prairie View 47 10.6, 134 Grambling 19 27.9
14% 221 Weber State 52 14.3, 78 Sacramento State 49 40.4
14% 156 Boise State 26 18.4, 39 Utah 20 37.0
8% 135 Texas Tech 21 7.3, 3 Texas A&M 19 42.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.41 23 1.08 35 0.86 28 0.83 10 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 105 75 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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