prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 89 Robert Morris 48 45.2, 233 Sacred Heart 0 3.4
92% 87 Saint John's 31 29.7, 228 Saint Peter's 0 2.0
92% 79 Albany 46 51.1, 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 8 8.7
92% 66 Furman 31 41.2, 230 The Citadel 17 6.5
92% 58 Tulane 48 51.2, 220 Southwestern Louisiana 32 16.1
92% 33 Tennessee State 43 68.9, 236 Tennessee - Martin 7 7.7
92% 28 Arkansas 48 30.1, 151 South Carolina 14 3.8
92% 17 Texas A&M 34 41.6, 134 Kansas 17 12.1
92% 14 Lehigh 42 44.0, 156 Delaware 35 15.7
92% 12 Southern Mississippi 24 45.1, 138 Army 0 13.2
92% 3 Kansas State 40 47.5, 123 Utah State 0 8.8
92% 2 Florida State 33 43.1, 97 Wake Forest 10 6.6
91% 183 Chattanooga 27 36.6, 235 Virginia Military 0 10.7
91% 111 Western Michigan 45 45.6, 225 Buffalo 17 17.8
91% 76 Miami - Ohio 17 40.6, 218 Kent State 10 15.8
91% 68 Louisiana Tech 42 55.3, 199 Middle Tennessee State 18 27.9
91% 65 Yale 44 29.5, 193 Dartmouth 3 4.7
90% 112 Hampton 28 34.5, 227 Norfolk State 27 9.2
90% 52 Texas Christian 56 35.3, 171 Tulsa 17 12.4
89% 80 Wyoming 38 32.8, 209 Northeast Louisiana 20 9.8
89% 18 Wisconsin 59 39.0, 96 Indiana 0 16.3
88% 161 Eastern Washington 45 39.8, 226 Idaho State 38 18.4
88% 114 Central Florida 28 37.1, 214 Nicholls State 0 15.2
88% 16 Georgia Tech 38 40.9, 116 Duke 31 20.9
87% 190 Monmouth 20 26.2, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 9 7.8
87% 21 Marshall 38 26.0, 91 Toledo 13 7.5
86% 119 Marist 41 26.2, 200 La Salle 23 8.3
85% 176 Indiana State 34 29.3, 221 Southeast Missouri Sta 13 12.3
84% 99 West Virginia 62 33.8, 185 Rutgers 16 17.4
83% 145 East Tennessee State 24 31.9, 208 Liberty 12 16.1
83% 108 Harvard 37 33.7, 212 Fordham 30 16.9
83% 107 Brown 27 39.7, 188 Rhode Island 25 23.9
82% 6 Florida 32 28.8, 48 Auburn 14 14.1
81% 152 New Hampshire 33 37.5, 223 Northeastern 31 21.6
80% 53 Elon 34 26.4, 144 Samford 31 13.9
79% 215 Charleston Southern 39 23.0, 231 Austin Peay 17 11.8
79% 84 Arizona 34 35.1, 139 Texas - El Paso 21 22.4
78% 57 Montana 42 44.0, 154 Northern Arizona 23 31.3
78% 9 Penn State 23 30.6, 31 Ohio State 10 18.4
77% 159 Murray State 37 38.8, 196 Eastern Illinois 32 27.9
76% 168 Princeton 22 21.5, 197 Lafayette 10 12.5
76% 147 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 35 25.9, 191 Alabama State 21 16.3
76% 121 Wagner 35 29.1, 165 Central Connecticut 16 19.0
76% 98 Rice 49 25.6, 140 San Jose State 7 16.1
76% 45 Colgate 55 28.4, 88 Cornell 16 18.1
75% 136 Youngstown State 10 35.8, 172 California Poly 7 26.7
75% 126 North Carolina A&T 30 30.9, 194 Morgan State 6 21.3
74% 131 Portland State 49 34.9, 167 Montana State 28 25.6
69% 157 Wofford 35 31.5, 207 Western Carolina 21 23.7
69% 19 Notre Dame 25 28.1, 30 Southern California 24 21.3
68% 64 Northern Iowa 29 31.0, 113 Southwest Missouri Sta 17 24.5
67% 175 Southern Utah 39 32.4, 210 Weber State 7 26.6
67% 59 Kentucky 31 32.2, 67 Louisiana State 5 26.6
66% 100 Idaho 30 31.1, 148 Arkansas State 24 25.7
66% 94 South Florida 14 30.5, 109 Illinois State 13 25.0
66% 24 Alabama 30 26.2, 47 Mississippi 22 21.1
65% 8 Virginia Tech 62 22.9, 13 Syracuse 0 18.0
64% 54 Brigham Young 31 31.2, 92 New Mexico 7 26.6
63% 203 San Diego 42 20.5, 206 Butler 14 16.8
63% 198 McNeese State 39 32.6, 219 Jacksonville State 36 28.1
63% 162 Stephen F. Austin 45 34.4, 195 Sam Houston State 31 30.3
63% 122 Western Illinois 68 26.3, 133 Southern Illinois 27 22.4
63% 85 Troy State 24 19.9, 125 Southwest Texas State 17 16.1
62% 189 Tennessee Tech 23 11.8, 187 Western Kentucky 10 9.0
61% 26 Minnesota 37 21.2, 46 Illinois 7 18.6
60% 95 Massachusetts 38 20.9, 132 Maine 17 18.8
57% 127 Texas Southern 23 22.7, 118 Alcorn State 21 21.4
54% 82 Dayton 20 25.1, 101 Drake 14 24.3
54% 63 Georgia 27 25.8, 83 Vanderbilt 17 25.0
53% 211 Siena 14 14.8, 202 Iona 0 14.3
53% 117 Northwestern 23 15.0, 106 Iowa 21 14.5
53% 61 San Diego State 17 24.9, 75 Colorado State 10 24.3
50% 146 James Madison 30 21.8, 163 William & Mary 20 21.8
50% 62 Stanford 21 39.8, 44 Oregon State 17 39.7
48% 173 Akron 55 34.5, 142 Bowling Green 25 34.9
48% 81 Alabama - Birmingham 24 24.5, 90 Cincinnati 21 24.9
40% 69 Louisville 32 29.3, 71 Memphis State 31 31.6
40% 38 Utah 21 18.2, 39 Air Force 15 20.6
39% 179 Eastern Michigan 27 21.1, 143 Ohio 26 24.0
39% 169 Northern Illinois 31 20.3, 177 Central Michigan 27 23.5
39% 73 Virginia 47 21.8, 74 North Carolina State 26 24.8
38% 51 Iowa State 24 25.3, 49 Missouri 21 28.9
37% 155 Villanova 48 17.0, 149 Connecticut 45 21.0
36% 164 Pennsylvania 41 15.4, 158 Columbia 17 19.5
34% 86 Houston 20 16.6, 72 North Carolina 12 21.6
33% 135 Boston College 20 18.3, 77 Pittsburgh 16 24.1
33% 129 Towson 49 21.4, 115 Howard 33 27.1
31% 60 Clemson 42 17.4, 43 Maryland 30 23.6
29% 25 Purdue 52 23.9, 5 Michigan State 28 31.5
28% 70 Southern 26 16.4, 42 Jackson State 14 23.8
23% 110 Texas Tech 31 24.7, 37 Colorado 10 35.5
23% 104 Bucknell 49 15.2, 36 Duquesne 20 25.3
19% 201 California State - Nor 36 29.1, 93 Sacramento State 14 44.4
18% 204 North Texas 17 11.0, 102 Boise State 10 26.7
16% 141 Valparaiso 31 24.1, 55 Morehead State 21 41.7
16% 78 Appalachian State 17 21.5, 10 Georgia Southern 16 38.0
14% 128 California 17 15.7, 40 California - Los Angel 0 34.9
12% 120 Arizona State 28 16.7, 27 Washington 7 39.0
10% 170 Holy Cross 24 8.6, 34 Fairfield 23 31.7
9% 205 Southern Methodist 24 8.7, 50 Fresno State 14 36.7
8% 213 Davidson 28 2.8, 35 Georgetown 27 39.2
8% 160 Richmond 31 16.1, 23 Hofstra 21 44.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.36 29 0.91 18 1.02 24 0.83 20 0.93 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 102 73 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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