prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 116 Morehead State 47 54.0, 232 Austin Peay 7 17.7
92% 80 Elon 38 42.2, 214 Charleston Southern 13 9.0
92% 59 Montana 73 58.9, 222 Idaho State 23 27.5
92% 33 Florida A&M 48 56.1, 195 Delaware State 19 20.2
92% 21 Ohio State 41 35.8, 129 Iowa 11 6.9
92% 17 Marshall 41 40.9, 134 Northern Illinois 9 10.5
92% 16 Lehigh 44 49.9, 165 Towson 39 14.4
92% 14 Notre Dame 28 42.4, 130 Navy 24 11.8
92% 9 Tennessee 30 37.7, 141 South Carolina 7 2.5
92% 4 Wisconsin 35 37.8, 110 Northwestern 19 6.4
92% 3 Nebraska 24 43.1, 96 Kansas 17 12.1
92% 2 Kansas State 48 63.9, 183 Baylor 7 3.9
92% 1 Virginia Tech 30 46.1, 79 Pittsburgh 17 10.6
91% 95 Troy State 20 36.4, 219 Nicholls State 0 11.0
91% 46 Massachusetts 31 34.2, 163 Rhode Island 9 8.6
90% 67 North Carolina A&T 19 39.1, 203 Bethune - Cookman 18 16.1
90% 12 Miami - Florida 28 41.6, 86 West Virginia 20 18.3
89% 69 Jackson State 41 32.3, 172 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 10.5
89% 11 Michigan 34 43.0, 111 Indiana 31 20.1
88% 205 Monmouth 37 28.8, 234 Sacred Heart 17 8.7
88% 169 California State - Nor 30 40.8, 227 Weber State 28 18.7
88% 137 Arkansas State 31 34.8, 218 Southwestern Louisiana 27 13.8
88% 119 Duquesne 49 31.6, 208 Siena 17 11.0
88% 106 Saint John's 21 25.2, 212 La Salle 10 6.7
88% 30 Georgia Southern 55 41.2, 158 East Tennessee State 6 20.2
87% 223 Western Carolina 40 32.6, 235 Virginia Military 2 12.7
87% 211 Southeast Missouri Sta 36 35.5, 236 Tennessee - Martin 7 17.1
87% 136 Stephen F. Austin 33 44.9, 220 Jacksonville State 16 23.1
85% 117 New Mexico 27 26.1, 192 Nevada - Las Vegas 6 9.5
85% 94 Delaware 37 40.9, 206 Northeastern 34 23.2
85% 62 Yale 23 35.5, 154 Pennsylvania 19 16.7
85% 20 Georgia Tech 48 44.6, 78 North Carolina State 21 27.6
84% 159 Hampton 39 31.7, 215 South Carolina State 27 15.0
84% 50 Tennessee State 33 39.5, 125 Eastern Kentucky 28 22.0
84% 5 Florida 30 36.8, 38 Georgia 14 19.9
83% 152 Harvard 63 21.5, 201 Dartmouth 21 8.3
83% 8 Texas 44 31.2, 52 Iowa State 41 16.0
83% 6 Florida State 35 34.2, 43 Virginia 10 18.9
82% 85 Fresno State 28 35.9, 186 Tulsa 14 21.3
82% 77 Appalachian State 62 30.0, 148 Chattanooga 14 14.9
81% 155 Ohio 37 23.9, 221 Ball State 25 10.9
80% 132 Samford 35 26.7, 190 Liberty 28 13.4
80% 107 Drake 41 22.2, 191 San Diego 20 10.0
79% 204 Iona 34 32.3, 231 Canisius 12 19.7
79% 131 Brown 37 43.5, 209 Fordham 18 31.3
79% 84 Northern Iowa 44 31.1, 138 Indiana State 21 18.2
79% 10 Penn State 27 29.1, 41 Illinois 7 16.9
78% 99 Dayton 34 27.0, 145 Valparaiso 10 15.7
78% 74 James Madison 13 22.2, 114 South Florida 3 12.1
78% 34 Oregon 20 38.7, 64 Arizona State 17 27.3
78% 26 Oregon State 27 30.9, 89 Washington State 13 19.6
77% 126 Texas - El Paso 42 35.2, 167 San Jose State 26 24.5
77% 102 Central Florida 31 33.1, 142 Eastern Michigan 6 21.8
77% 24 Arkansas 34 27.3, 39 Auburn 10 16.7
77% 22 East Carolina 19 23.5, 75 Houston 3 13.7
76% 151 Wofford 47 29.8, 210 The Citadel 16 19.9
76% 128 Northwestern State 36 23.3, 166 Southwest Texas State 21 14.5
76% 56 Louisville 23 44.3, 91 Alabama - Birmingham 14 36.1
76% 23 Brigham Young 27 26.7, 40 Air Force 20 17.1
75% 217 Kent State 41 26.8, 226 Buffalo 20 17.8
75% 162 Northern Arizona 49 34.7, 193 Montana State 20 25.8
75% 149 Temple 56 25.7, 182 Rutgers 28 16.6
75% 81 Richmond 28 34.9, 146 Connecticut 21 25.6
73% 28 Texas A&M 21 28.6, 42 Oklahoma State 3 20.2
71% 164 Alabama A&M 15 31.3, 196 Alabama State 10 23.7
69% 181 Northeast Louisiana 10 31.9, 197 Middle Tennessee State 0 25.1
68% 63 Louisiana Tech 34 30.0, 113 Toledo 17 23.5
67% 160 Bowling Green 31 35.5, 170 Central Michigan 7 29.9
67% 124 William & Mary 37 27.9, 139 Maine 13 21.8
67% 60 Memphis State 49 28.1, 109 Tulane 7 22.5
65% 66 Texas Christian 34 26.3, 115 Hawaii 14 21.5
64% 135 Portland State 42 30.8, 176 California Poly 28 26.4
62% 198 Howard 29 31.9, 216 Norfolk State 23 28.6
62% 188 Princeton 44 16.7, 184 Columbia 15 14.0
62% 61 Arizona 33 29.8, 100 California - Los Angel 7 26.4
61% 179 Nevada - Reno 41 20.6, 174 North Texas 28 18.2
61% 72 Missouri 34 24.7, 71 Texas Tech 7 21.9
60% 65 Furman 28 27.0, 92 North Carolina 3 24.6
60% 51 Washington 35 33.4, 44 Stanford 30 31.5
59% 178 Western Kentucky 38 20.4, 200 Eastern Illinois 15 18.6
59% 157 Eastern Washington 26 31.1, 147 Sacramento State 21 29.3
59% 87 Western Michigan 24 36.5, 127 Akron 10 34.7
56% 173 Texas Southern 21 23.5, 187 Grambling 20 22.5
55% 112 Illinois State 31 29.5, 133 Youngstown State 28 28.6
54% 48 Mississippi 42 19.5, 73 Louisiana State 23 18.7
53% 168 Southern Illinois 52 36.1, 150 Southwest Missouri Sta 49 35.6
53% 97 Boise State 33 24.6, 118 Utah State 27 24.0
53% 68 Cincinnati 52 21.4, 90 Miami - Ohio 42 20.9
51% 35 Clemson 12 19.5, 45 Wake Forest 3 19.3
49% 207 Stony Brook 27 21.4, 189 Central Connecticut 14 21.6
48% 25 Alabama 35 20.5, 18 Southern Mississippi 14 20.8
42% 83 Georgetown 21 26.5, 57 Fairfield 14 28.1
41% 153 Cornell 31 21.9, 123 Wagner 14 23.5
41% 144 Murray State 22 22.0, 156 Tennessee Tech 11 23.9
41% 108 Villanova 31 33.8, 120 New Hampshire 28 35.4
39% 103 Robert Morris 30 25.2, 104 Albany 20 28.4
37% 199 Sam Houston State 20 25.9, 194 McNeese State 3 29.8
33% 229 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 17.2, 224 Prairie View 12 22.9
33% 15 Purdue 33 22.4, 13 Minnesota 28 28.1
29% 76 California 17 16.9, 29 Southern California 7 23.9
28% 70 Colorado State 31 19.2, 27 Utah 24 26.8
27% 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 11.5, 230 Saint Peter's 8 18.5
26% 202 Lafayette 38 16.8, 140 Marist 13 25.1
18% 225 Saint Mary's 28 11.3, 171 Holy Cross 26 26.0
18% 180 New Mexico State 42 20.5, 82 Idaho 14 35.6
16% 55 Colorado 38 21.1, 7 Oklahoma 24 38.3
15% 105 Duke 25 13.9, 36 Maryland 22 31.7
15% 101 Boston College 24 13.4, 32 Syracuse 23 31.0
11% 177 Southern Methodist 27 7.8, 47 Rice 2 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
18 1.19 16 1.16 27 1.12 33 0.96 15 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 109 89 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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