prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 196 Middle Tennessee State 70 43.7, 235 Tennessee - Martin 14 13.5
92% 121 Saint John's 45 41.3, 233 Canisius 0 2.6
92% 117 Albany 41 52.3, 234 Sacred Heart 0 8.0
92% 91 Robert Morris 49 49.7, 232 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 3.8
92% 52 Appalachian State 34 54.5, 236 Virginia Military 7 4.1
92% 44 Louisiana Tech 58 41.2, 176 Northeast Louisiana 17 12.7
92% 33 Hofstra 20 55.3, 229 Buffalo 13 6.8
92% 15 Marshall 28 53.2, 219 Kent State 16 7.5
92% 3 Florida 13 44.3, 81 Vanderbilt 6 14.8
92% 1 Virginia Tech 22 44.6, 72 West Virginia 20 12.2
91% 70 Kansas 45 39.9, 185 Baylor 10 14.3
90% 144 Sacramento State 41 52.8, 227 Idaho State 20 27.4
90% 66 Tennessee State 25 32.0, 168 Tennessee Tech 19 8.4
89% 127 Northwestern State 35 46.0, 216 Jacksonville State 7 24.2
89% 51 Jackson State 41 31.2, 177 Texas Southern 24 9.7
89% 17 Michigan 37 34.2, 105 Northwestern 3 10.9
89% 2 Kansas State 20 41.2, 34 Colorado 14 17.4
88% 88 North Carolina A&T 24 36.7, 186 Delaware State 13 15.8
88% 74 Fairfield 57 34.6, 171 Marist 7 14.2
88% 41 Montana 28 44.5, 180 California Poly 14 22.5
87% 151 Eastern Michigan 31 31.7, 220 Ball State 21 12.4
86% 40 Air Force 28 32.9, 128 Army 0 14.7
85% 211 La Salle 35 24.9, 230 Saint Peter's 13 8.8
85% 174 Sam Houston State 69 29.7, 224 Nicholls State 17 11.1
85% 85 Elon 38 33.2, 190 Liberty 14 15.9
84% 142 Northern Arizona 36 38.6, 223 Weber State 19 21.2
84% 27 Clemson 58 31.4, 94 Duke 7 14.7
84% 16 Alabama 23 34.8, 78 Louisiana State 17 17.1
83% 114 Bucknell 32 28.3, 181 Holy Cross 21 12.7
83% 57 Syracuse 27 33.3, 136 Temple 10 15.1
83% 38 Oregon 52 36.4, 99 Washington State 10 20.3
83% 4 Nebraska 37 26.8, 25 Texas A&M 0 10.8
82% 10 Oklahoma 37 35.4, 55 Missouri 0 18.0
80% 178 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 30 21.1, 226 Prairie View 6 9.2
80% 131 Portland State 34 40.7, 188 California State - Nor 21 27.0
80% 111 Navy 34 37.3, 202 Rutgers 7 22.8
80% 77 Troy State 27 33.8, 140 Stephen F. Austin 7 18.7
80% 9 Texas 34 35.7, 62 Oklahoma State 21 22.6
79% 172 Chattanooga 30 31.2, 214 The Citadel 27 18.0
79% 101 Boise State 63 31.3, 154 Arkansas State 10 18.2
79% 100 Drake 34 34.9, 184 Jacksonville 14 21.0
79% 29 Oregon State 17 27.5, 68 California 7 15.1
78% 167 Southern Utah 57 33.4, 222 Saint Mary's 22 21.3
78% 149 Connecticut 29 38.0, 191 Northeastern 24 26.0
78% 21 Georgia Southern 41 33.4, 48 Furman 38 20.7
78% 8 Tennessee 38 29.2, 26 Notre Dame 14 17.0
77% 146 Samford 35 31.4, 213 Western Carolina 32 20.2
77% 14 Miami - Florida 33 30.9, 69 Pittsburgh 3 20.1
76% 193 Howard 49 35.3, 217 South Carolina State 42 25.7
76% 182 Lafayette 27 29.1, 207 Fordham 7 18.9
76% 133 Wofford 38 34.6, 169 East Tennessee State 14 24.7
76% 90 Miami - Ohio 32 32.6, 134 Akron 23 22.1
76% 65 Wake Forest 19 18.8, 123 North Carolina 3 10.2
76% 64 Illinois 40 26.0, 132 Iowa 24 16.7
75% 153 Eastern Washington 45 29.3, 205 Montana State 23 19.9
75% 89 Houston 36 29.2, 125 Tulane 31 19.8
75% 49 Auburn 28 25.5, 98 Central Florida 10 16.1
74% 32 Mississippi State 23 27.4, 54 Kentucky 22 18.7
73% 31 Florida A&M 65 28.0, 50 Southern 18 19.5
72% 129 Youngstown State 17 30.6, 157 Southwest Missouri Sta 14 22.6
72% 96 Idaho 42 36.8, 160 Nevada - Reno 33 28.6
71% 148 Wagner 35 25.4, 201 Monmouth 3 18.0
71% 118 Toledo 32 23.7, 179 Central Michigan 13 16.6
70% 126 Hawaii 62 29.7, 175 San Jose State 41 22.7
69% 143 Pennsylvania 41 20.4, 164 Princeton 13 14.4
69% 23 Brigham Young 30 30.2, 56 San Diego State 7 23.5
68% 87 Yale 37 26.3, 139 Cornell 20 19.9
68% 71 Fresno State 47 23.5, 82 Rice 18 17.1
68% 45 Massachusetts 33 27.6, 97 Richmond 6 21.4
67% 203 Columbia 21 23.1, 215 Dartmouth 14 17.1
66% 156 Indiana State 66 39.4, 165 Southern Illinois 45 34.4
65% 20 Southern Mississippi 20 17.5, 39 Memphis State 5 13.4
65% 5 Wisconsin 28 29.8, 13 Purdue 21 24.5
64% 59 Colorado State 36 22.0, 102 New Mexico 22 17.5
63% 120 Brown 17 36.0, 124 Harvard 10 31.8
62% 119 William & Mary 24 25.9, 152 Rhode Island 6 22.2
62% 24 Michigan State 23 25.5, 22 Ohio State 7 22.1
60% 209 Southeast Missouri Sta 45 23.0, 204 Eastern Illinois 38 20.9
59% 198 San Diego 20 19.7, 195 Stony Brook 9 17.8
52% 110 Illinois State 38 31.1, 93 Western Illinois 30 30.6
52% 35 Washington 33 28.7, 46 Arizona 25 28.3
43% 79 North Carolina State 30 25.1, 58 Maryland 17 26.4
43% 67 Louisville 23 39.7, 73 Cincinnati 13 40.8
41% 221 Norfolk State 20 21.9, 206 Morgan State 16 23.8
41% 113 Delaware 14 33.3, 122 New Hampshire 10 35.1
40% 183 Bethune - Cookman 34 22.5, 163 Hampton 27 24.8
40% 145 Murray State 45 30.8, 116 Eastern Kentucky 30 33.3
40% 137 New Mexico State 14 23.2, 141 Utah State 6 25.5
40% 42 Colgate 28 34.5, 28 Lehigh 24 36.7
38% 86 Texas Tech 28 18.8, 47 Iowa State 16 21.9
35% 197 Grambling 36 27.9, 189 Alabama State 13 33.0
31% 106 Duquesne 33 28.9, 84 Georgetown 21 35.6
27% 63 Arizona State 26 18.5, 36 Southern California 16 27.0
27% 61 Virginia 45 30.6, 18 Georgia Tech 38 38.4
25% 12 Minnesota 24 15.2, 7 Penn State 23 23.9
23% 155 Towson 30 20.0, 80 Dayton 27 30.5
23% 53 Mississippi 38 19.6, 11 Arkansas 16 30.3
21% 159 Maine 26 13.6, 76 James Madison 20 25.7
17% 210 McNeese State 10 8.0, 166 Southwest Texas State 7 22.0
17% 95 Alabama - Birmingham 36 13.8, 19 East Carolina 17 29.0
15% 104 Wyoming 43 16.8, 30 Utah 29 34.6
13% 192 Tulsa 43 18.8, 108 Texas - El Paso 19 39.5
11% 225 Mississippi Valley Sta 30 16.6, 150 Alcorn State 26 39.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.63 18 1.18 34 1.08 28 0.96 12 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 103 81 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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