prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 37 Colorado State 35 40.1, 192 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 10.0
92% 19 Marshall 34 40.0, 138 Ohio 3 9.4
92% 5 Tennessee 38 36.0, 73 Vanderbilt 10 8.1
92% 2 Virginia Tech 38 42.5, 60 Boston College 14 10.7
89% 8 Miami - Florida 45 33.9, 71 Syracuse 13 12.1
88% 15 Georgia Southern 72 43.6, 121 Northern Arizona 29 23.3
87% 1 Nebraska 33 32.5, 18 Colorado 30 13.9
80% 97 Southern 37 31.1, 173 Grambling 31 17.7
79% 12 Oklahoma 44 34.0, 41 Oklahoma State 7 20.9
75% 57 Texas Christian 21 26.3, 93 Southern Methodist 0 17.1
75% 23 Florida A&M 44 34.4, 70 Appalachian State 29 25.7
72% 29 Georgia Tech 51 40.3, 50 Georgia 48 32.6
67% 32 Stanford 40 38.4, 45 Notre Dame 37 33.1
66% 65 West Virginia 52 24.7, 76 Pittsburgh 21 19.5
65% 157 Utah State 34 16.7, 190 North Texas 7 12.5
62% 34 Mississippi State 23 18.8, 36 Mississippi 20 15.7
60% 95 Troy State 27 20.6, 90 James Madison 7 18.5
60% 43 Hofstra 27 31.8, 39 Lehigh 15 29.3
58% 69 North Carolina A&T 24 23.5, 94 Tennessee State 10 22.0
56% 31 Massachusetts 30 26.1, 48 Furman 23 24.8
55% 62 Arizona State 42 26.6, 53 Arizona 27 25.7
52% 68 San Diego State 39 22.2, 56 Wyoming 7 22.0
37% 55 Southern California 45 29.8, 28 Louisiana Tech 19 33.6
35% 113 Washington State 22 25.2, 102 Hawaii 14 30.6
31% 104 Illinois State 56 30.2, 49 Colgate 13 36.9
27% 25 Texas A&M 20 22.0, 7 Texas 16 30.2
23% 131 New Mexico 33 16.1, 59 Air Force 28 27.2
21% 92 Louisiana State 35 18.5, 22 Arkansas 10 31.4
17% 203 Stony Brook 28 9.5, 112 Saint John's 6 24.7
16% 116 Youngstown State 30 17.2, 47 Montana 27 34.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.77 7 0.87 7 0.75 6 0.78 4 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 30 22 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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