prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 8 Miami - Florida 55 44.9, 137 Temple 0 7.1
89% 18 Marshall 34 37.7, 106 Western Michigan 30 15.4
79% 21 Florida A&M 17 37.9, 86 Troy State 10 25.1
76% 2 Nebraska 22 32.0, 7 Texas 6 22.3
73% 15 Georgia Southern 38 35.7, 25 Massachusetts 21 27.3
69% 96 Navy 19 29.5, 130 Army 9 22.6
35% 16 Alabama 34 20.1, 9 Florida 7 25.2
34% 100 Youngstown State 41 13.2, 63 North Carolina A&T 3 17.7
30% 66 Illinois State 37 24.3, 48 Hofstra 20 31.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 3 0.50 4 1.00 1 1.12 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 9 6 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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