prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 10 Georgia Southern 28 45.8, 51 Illinois State 17 28.5
24% 65 Youngstown State 27 23.8, 18 Florida A&M 24 33.6
22% 97 Southern 31 18.8, 37 Jackson State 30 30.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 0 0.00 2 0.00 1 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 3 1 0.42
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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