prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 2 Jacksonville 27 31.1, 31 Cleveland 7 10.8
77% 3 Oakland 9 23.6, 22 San Diego 6 13.5
75% 7 Minnesota 30 28.8, 24 Chicago 27 17.7
75% 1 St. Louis 41 28.1, 9 Denver 36 17.4
67% 25 Atlanta 36 24.1, 27 San Francisco 28 18.1
67% 23 New York Giants 21 22.4, 28 Arizona 16 16.4
66% 20 Detroit 14 23.7, 29 New Orleans 10 17.9
62% 4 Buffalo 16 19.4, 6 Tennessee 13 16.5
61% 8 Baltimore 16 18.4, 21 Pittsburgh 0 15.7
60% 15 Washington 20 31.3, 18 Carolina 17 28.1
49% 19 Miami 23 19.9, 13 Seattle 0 20.2
48% 11 New York Jets 20 19.9, 16 Green Bay 16 20.2
39% 12 Tampa Bay 21 10.3, 14 New England 16 12.3
36% 10 Indianapolis 27 22.6, 5 Kansas City 14 28.2
26% 26 Philadelphia 41 13.3, 17 Dallas 14 21.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.61 7 1.12 4 1.00 1 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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