prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 82% 2 Jacksonville 27 31.1, 31 Cleveland 7 10.8 77% 3 Oakland 9 23.6, 22 San Diego 6 13.5 75% 7 Minnesota 30 28.8, 24 Chicago 27 17.7 75% 1 St. Louis 41 28.1, 9 Denver 36 17.4 67% 25 Atlanta 36 24.1, 27 San Francisco 28 18.1 67% 23 New York Giants 21 22.4, 28 Arizona 16 16.4 66% 20 Detroit 14 23.7, 29 New Orleans 10 17.9 62% 4 Buffalo 16 19.4, 6 Tennessee 13 16.5 61% 8 Baltimore 16 18.4, 21 Pittsburgh 0 15.7 60% 15 Washington 20 31.3, 18 Carolina 17 28.1 49% 19 Miami 23 19.9, 13 Seattle 0 20.2 48% 11 New York Jets 20 19.9, 16 Green Bay 16 20.2 39% 12 Tampa Bay 21 10.3, 14 New England 16 12.3 36% 10 Indianapolis 27 22.6, 5 Kansas City 14 28.2 26% 26 Philadelphia 41 13.3, 17 Dallas 14 21.1 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 3 0.61 7 1.12 4 1.00 1 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 1.01 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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