prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 2 Jacksonville 13 38.4, 31 Cincinnati 0 10.3
83% 1 St. Louis 41 39.8, 28 San Francisco 24 17.4
73% 18 Seattle 20 26.8, 29 New Orleans 10 16.2
73% 11 Kansas City 42 21.8, 23 San Diego 10 12.5
69% 3 Tampa Bay 31 15.8, 19 Detroit 10 10.1
63% 17 Green Bay 6 23.2, 22 Philadelphia 3 18.0
59% 20 New York Giants 14 19.7, 26 Chicago 7 18.1
49% 10 Minnesota 21 21.2, 14 New England 13 21.3
44% 12 New York Jets 27 16.2, 5 Buffalo 14 17.2
40% 13 Miami 19 15.7, 4 Baltimore 6 17.8
40% 7 Denver 33 21.4, 6 Oakland 24 23.9
39% 30 Cleveland 23 15.0, 25 Pittsburgh 20 18.6
32% 21 Dallas 27 19.2, 16 Washington 21 25.7
26% 24 Atlanta 15 19.5, 15 Carolina 10 28.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.44 5 0.62 3 0.91 2 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 7 0.75
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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