prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 87% 2 Jacksonville 13 38.4, 31 Cincinnati 0 10.3 83% 1 St. Louis 41 39.8, 28 San Francisco 24 17.4 73% 18 Seattle 20 26.8, 29 New Orleans 10 16.2 73% 11 Kansas City 42 21.8, 23 San Diego 10 12.5 69% 3 Tampa Bay 31 15.8, 19 Detroit 10 10.1 63% 17 Green Bay 6 23.2, 22 Philadelphia 3 18.0 59% 20 New York Giants 14 19.7, 26 Chicago 7 18.1 49% 10 Minnesota 21 21.2, 14 New England 13 21.3 44% 12 New York Jets 27 16.2, 5 Buffalo 14 17.2 40% 13 Miami 19 15.7, 4 Baltimore 6 17.8 40% 7 Denver 33 21.4, 6 Oakland 24 23.9 39% 30 Cleveland 23 15.0, 25 Pittsburgh 20 18.6 32% 21 Dallas 27 19.2, 16 Washington 21 25.7 26% 24 Atlanta 15 19.5, 15 Carolina 10 28.9 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 4 0.44 5 0.62 3 0.91 2 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 7 0.75 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net