prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 3 Baltimore 37 29.8, 31 Cincinnati 0 6.3
80% 6 Oakland 36 31.0, 29 Cleveland 10 14.0
75% 2 St. Louis 41 31.9, 22 Atlanta 20 21.0
74% 7 Miami 10 19.5, 15 New England 3 11.2
70% 9 Tennessee 23 22.9, 25 Pittsburgh 20 14.2
65% 17 Philadelphia 21 23.0, 28 New Orleans 7 17.8
64% 19 Detroit 21 19.0, 27 Chicago 14 14.9
63% 16 Seattle 20 18.3, 24 San Diego 12 14.1
61% 20 Green Bay 29 22.6, 26 Arizona 3 19.8
52% 13 Indianapolis 43 22.4, 8 Jacksonville 14 21.9
39% 5 Kansas City 23 22.1, 4 Denver 22 25.6
36% 21 Washington 16 17.9, 14 New York Giants 6 22.6
30% 30 San Francisco 41 21.1, 23 Dallas 24 30.2
27% 12 New York Jets 21 11.6, 1 Tampa Bay 17 19.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.94 8 0.97 3 0.90 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 10 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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