prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 10 Tennessee 23 31.8, 31 Cincinnati 14 9.4
78% 9 Oakland 34 34.2, 23 San Francisco 28 22.5
78% 7 Denver 21 29.5, 25 San Diego 7 17.0
75% 2 Baltimore 15 21.7, 18 Jacksonville 10 12.3
73% 5 Miami 22 16.2, 12 Buffalo 13 9.7
61% 29 Arizona 29 18.3, 30 Cleveland 21 16.0
61% 19 New York Giants 13 19.6, 24 Atlanta 6 17.1
57% 20 Detroit 31 18.3, 17 Green Bay 24 17.1
41% 22 Carolina 26 16.4, 16 Seattle 3 18.1
41% 11 Minnesota 30 19.3, 3 Tampa Bay 23 21.1
38% 14 New England 24 18.3, 4 Indianapolis 16 21.6
37% 15 Washington 17 16.5, 13 Philadelphia 14 20.3
36% 28 New Orleans 31 16.3, 27 Chicago 10 20.2
25% 21 Pittsburgh 20 14.8, 6 New York Jets 3 25.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.57 5 0.64 5 1.05 1 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 8 0.84
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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