prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 10 Pittsburgh 22 26.0, 30 Cleveland 0 5.2
88% 9 Philadelphia 13 28.8, 28 Chicago 9 8.5
78% 8 Oakland 31 27.6, 24 Seattle 3 16.1
74% 6 Indianapolis 30 26.7, 15 New England 23 17.9
73% 25 Dallas 48 26.3, 29 Arizona 7 18.3
72% 7 Minnesota 31 25.5, 16 Buffalo 27 17.9
64% 21 Carolina 34 24.9, 23 San Francisco 16 20.3
63% 11 Washington 35 19.8, 20 Jacksonville 16 16.0
60% 22 New Orleans 21 19.8, 27 Atlanta 19 17.6
43% 14 New York Jets 40 15.6, 5 Miami 37 16.7
37% 13 Kansas City 54 30.8, 1 St. Louis 34 34.9
28% 12 Tennessee 14 12.8, 2 Baltimore 6 19.4
20% 19 Detroit 28 13.4, 3 Tampa Bay 14 25.9
9% 31 Cincinnati 31 8.4, 4 Denver 21 34.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 4 1.20 6 0.89 2 1.13 1 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 9 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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