prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 15 New York Giants 24 23.8, 31 Cleveland 3 6.4
84% 2 Tampa Bay 27 28.1, 27 Atlanta 14 12.3
82% 4 Baltimore 27 16.2, 28 Cincinnati 7 5.3
73% 22 New Orleans 31 27.6, 26 San Francisco 15 19.1
67% 18 Philadelphia 16 21.7, 23 Dallas 13 16.1
63% 3 Tennessee 9 16.1, 1 Pittsburgh 7 13.1
60% 24 Seattle 17 18.6, 25 San Diego 15 16.7
59% 7 Oakland 49 21.6, 6 Kansas City 31 20.0
54% 10 Miami 23 20.1, 14 Detroit 8 19.4
41% 19 Green Bay 26 25.2, 13 Minnesota 20 27.2
39% 17 Buffalo 16 16.0, 16 New England 13 18.5
39% 12 Denver 30 26.4, 11 New York Jets 23 29.6
22% 21 Carolina 27 22.8, 8 St. Louis 24 34.8
17% 29 Chicago 27 17.6, 5 Indianapolis 24 32.7
9% 30 Arizona 16 9.6, 9 Washington 15 34.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.29 4 0.79 2 0.66 4 0.89 1 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 9 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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